Keep Building, Multifamily...For Now

One of the cities most respected multifamily watchdogs isnt raising any red flagsabout apartment overbuilding. Yet.(So you can just use your red flags for bullfighting in the meantime.)

Haddow & Cos David Haddow (with colleagues Chris Hall and Ladson Haddow) gave us a peek into his Q1 CBD Atlanta multifamily numbers, which show a market making solid gains--rent growth, occupancy and a new supply of apartments--since the ending of the Great Recession. But underneath the glitz could be some cracks beginning to form, David says. Below are the stats for the past three surveys of CBDs Class-A apartment stock. And David says leasing at new and under-construction projects is doing very well, including Novares SkyHouse Midtown, Gables Emory Point, and the Elle of Buckhead. Thats why we still think its too soon to raise the red flag.

[caption id="attachment_61489" align="alignnone" ] Source: Haddow & Associates[/caption]

David listedpotential concerns, includingthe pipeline of potential projects: 4,420 units under construction and another 4,702 proposed.(That's a lot of futons.) Our concern at this point is everybody is pushing rates, David says, adding that rates actually stalled from Q3 last year to Q1 this year. And occupancy even slipped.While the housing crash caused the psychology of owning to shift to renting, David says as things improve (as they have been) that may not be a permanent trend. That trade-off of owning versus renting is starting to come to the surface again.

But despite the uncertainties, Atlantas economy is making strides (finally). David notes even the banking industry here is making a strong comeback, with aggregate profits of $2.25B in 2012. To hear more about Davids views on Atlanta, click the video above.