Brexit: What It Could Mean For ATL Economy
As the world continues to digest the fallout from Brexit, we approached two noted local economists to find out what effects we could see in Atlanta.
The most immediate impact from Brexit is a strengthened dollar. That's great if you're planning to travel to Europe for vacation. But if you're making widgets you're hoping to sell to the UK, that's problematic, and it could mean Georgia's manufacturing base is going to take a hit, says Jeff Humphreys, director of the University of Georgia Terry College of Business' Selig Center for Economic Growth. “The dollar is already strong. This sort of adds to a headwind for exporters,” Jeff says.
Brexit will likely lead to a surge in foreign investment into the US—and Atlanta—commercial real estate, seeking safe havens. But Georgia State University Economic Forecasting Center's Rajeev Dhawan says that's a double-edged sword. Prices were already high—with caps at historic lows for some asset classes. Brexit will only feed into that trend, making commercial real estate more expensive. And, believe it or not, Rajeev says cap rates could actually go lower. But there's also a reverse effect: Europe is cheaper, especially with a stronger dollar. And so Rajeev expects many domestic investors will actually export capital overseas to take advantage of that.
For both economists, Brexit represents a symptom of something more fundamental in the Western World. While Rajeev initially felt Wall Street's drastic losses following the UK's vote to leave the EU was an overreaction, he now sees it as something more: The market pricing in the potential that the UK won't be an isolated incident. “Looking at it today, perhaps the market is factoring in more troubles with the EU. I wouldn't call it nationalism. It is anti-globalization and anti-immigration. It was all about economic opportunities that are limited right now. And when they're limited, people try to protect what they have,” he says. And he agrees that Brexit could be a real indication that Donald Trump has a strong chance to become president. “The UK to me is a mini-US in terms of demographics and trends and feelings of two major parties. Whatever happens in the UK is a very good harbinger.”
“My risk of recession is already at 25%,” Jeff says, but he adds he's not raising those odds just yet, even with Brexit. That will only hold true until late 2017 though. “I am saying the risk of recession rises [then] because certain imbalances rise,” he says, mainly focused on corporate and governmental debt levels acting as a headwind.
