HS2 Land And Property Estimates Are 'Enormously Wrong' Critics Say, But Is It True?
Predicted land and property costs associated with the £56B HS2 rail link from London via Birmingham to Manchester are "enormously wrong", a former HS2 executive claims.
Speaking on the BBC Panorama programme former HS2 Land and Property Director Doug Thornton said that the figures presented to Parliament were hundreds of millions of pounds too low, BBC News reports.
Thornton suggested the estimates were up to 100% out.
Further reports said the budgeting was "rudimentary map-based analysis by interns," The Sunday Times reports, saying that the figures for the HS2 project "covered up petrifying overspends".
The claims come as the HS2 project encounters heavy political weather, with the resignation of chairman Sir Terry Morgan amidst growing signs that the Treasury is restless, putting the Phase 2 legs from Crewe to Manchester and Yorkshire in peril.
HS2 is concentrating its efforts on lobbying MPs in an effort to shore up support in Westminster.
In order to build the London to Birmingham phase, HS2 must acquire more than 17,000 acres along the route, including compensating between 6,000 and 10,000 landowners. They will issue up to 50,000 compulsory purchase notices up to 2023.
Parliament's spending watchdog, the National Audit Office, published a report into HS2's land and property programme in September 2018, after receiving tip-offs that all was not well.
HS2's land acquisition budget has certainly risen fast. In 2012, HS2 Ltd.’s estimate of the net cost (after resales) to acquire land and property was £1.1B. By 2013 this had been re-assessed at £1.6B, and in 2017 was £3.3B (on 2015 pricing). The budget currently stands at £4.3B (also at 2015 prices). As at July 2018, HS2 Ltd. was forecasting that the cost to acquire land and property would be £3.4B.
However, HS2 is making slow progress processing purchases and making payments. The report states that since they acquired compulsory purchase powers in February 2017 they had acquired only 165 properties.
"While HS2 Ltd’s estimate of the cost of land and property has increased significantly over time, cost estimates, particularly in this sort of major land acquisition programme, are inherently uncertain and subject to change as more information becomes known about both the design and operation of the railway, and the nature of the land and properties required," the National Audit Office stated.
"HS2 Ltd’s current estimate is within its agreed funding envelope from HM Treasury and provides a reasonable basis from which it can monitor the potential cost to compensate property owners and tenants affected by the construction of the railway. However, it is still very early in the property acquisition programme and too soon to determine with certainty what the final outturn will be."
