Brandon Johnson Defeats Paul Vallas In Chicago Mayoral Race — A Disappointment For Many In CRE
Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson narrowly defeated former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas to become the next mayor of Chicago.
Vallas, heavily favored by the business and real estate community, started the night with a four-point lead in early returns. But his advantage eroded as Johnson slowly crept back — holding a 15,000-plus-vote advantage with 93% of precincts reporting and more than 90,000 mail-in ballots outstanding, which many analysts expected to swing Johnson's way.
Although the race was a dead heat as recently as a week ago, in the wee hours of election night, the result was characterized as an upset by local news outlets. Late polling on election eve showed Vallas gaining a slight lead, though it was barely outside the margin of error.
Tonight, we have shown the world the power of hope, the strength of organizing, and the might of our collective voice.
— Brandon Johnson (@Brandon4Chicago) April 5, 2023
Tomorrow, the real work begins. We will build a safer, stronger Chicago that reflects the hopes and dreams of every one of us — together. pic.twitter.com/7LX4u2OReY
As of 7 p.m. CT, the Chicago Board of Elections was reporting just 530,000 Chicagoans voted, about the same 33% of the electorate that voted in the Feb. 28 contest that placed Vallas and Johnson first and second.
"You know, they said this would never happen," Johnson said in his victory speech. "The first thing I want you to say is to the Chicagoans who did not vote for me. Here's what I want you to know: that I care about you, I value you and I want to hear from you. I want to work with you. And I'll be the mayor for you, too, because this campaign has always been about building a stronger, safer Chicago for all the people of Chicago."
Vallas and Johnson, while both Democrats, offered the city a stark contrast in a bitter contest that was marked by heated and late-breaking tit-for-tat accusations aimed at painting one another as extremists. Johnson, heavily supported by unions, won the backing of national progressives like Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who held a rally on Johnson's behalf last week, taking shots at Vallas for his support from the business community.
“The fundamental issue is what side are you on?” Sanders said. “Are you on the side of working people, or are you on the side of the speculators and the billionaires? And I know which side Brandon is on.”
Johnson supporters tarred Vallas with leaving “a trail of destruction” as the head of troubled school districts in Chicago, Philadelphia and New Orleans, painting him as a de facto Republican with the support of Trump-era figures like Betsy DeVos, who donated $60K to his campaign.
For his part, Johnson faced charges he supported defunding the police in a race that centered around crime, education and the state of the city's economy three years after the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Johnson also suffered a late hit when stories broke that he racked up thousands in unpaid utility bills as a well-compensated city employee.
The hostile tenor of the race was captured in final pitches to the City Club of Chicago last week that saw Vallas declare his policies "could not be more dissimilar" from Johnson's. Johnson called Vallas "naive and dishonest."
Johnson's base — white progressives and Black and brown voters that comprised Mayor Lori Lightfoot's coalition — were jubilant as Vallas' early lead went up in smoke.
"He has a smile on his face, he presents a positive vision about who we are," Illinois state Sen. Robert Peters, a Johnson supporter, told independent television station WGN. "Unlike the other candidate, who talks down to Chicagoans, Brandon says let's talk people up, let's lift everybody up. No matter your ZIP code, let's lift you up, let's build you up and let's make the best Chicago we can."
Johnson’s proposal to increase the transfer tax on commercial and residential transactions of over $1M has proved controversial with CRE players, as did added taxes on commuters, suburbs and airlines he said would generate $800M annually.
Vallas was heavily favored by the CRE industry and business interests, winning the endorsements of industry groups like the Illinois Hotel & Lodging Association, the Chicagoland Apartment Association, the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce, the Illinois Manufacturers' Association and the Illinois Retail Merchants Association.
“We need a mayor who will support and not hinder or defund the police,” Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce President Jack Lavin told the Chicago Sun-Times. “We need a mayor who will grow the economy — not impose almost $1 billion in new taxes that will chase away businesses and families. And we need a mayor with experience in balancing budgets — not one who will learn on the job."
Illinois Hotel & Lodging Association President Michael Jacobson said Chicago’s 17.4% hotel room tax was already one of the highest in the nation, and Johnson’s plan to raise it to more than 20% would deter convention business.
Vallas also cleaned up with CRE in donations, including from major hometown player Sterling Bay, whose executives kicked in a combined $16K. Other large industry donors included industrial developer Brennan Investment Group and political action committees for the Illinois Hotel & Lodging Association and the American Hotel Lodging Association, which contributed $25K each.
A number of prominent Chicago developers like Robert Buford and Mike Reschke Jr., son of real estate veteran Mike Reschke, also backed Vallas financially.
“Paul Vallas is best positioned to lead Chicago towards a brighter, safer, more collaborative future where the public and private sectors work together to build the city’s reputation on the global stage,” Sterling Bay CEO Andy Gloor said in a statement.
In his concession speech, Vallas said the results indicated a city "deeply divided" and called on his supporters to help Chicago come together.
"God knows we spent a lot of time in forums together. And we certainly shared a lot of opinions," he said. "I look forward to working with him and providing him with the full support he needs to be successful."
Vallas significantly outraised Johnson, taking in about $19.5M to Johnson’s $11.2M as of April 2, the Chicago Tribune reported.
In the end, though, neither money nor a dire warning from the Chicago police union's leader that there would be "blood in the streets" if Johnson was elected mattered to voters.
Like Vallas, Johnson opposes the city's automatic inflation-linked property tax increases, saying they “are already too high.” But in addition to hiking the real estate transfer tax, he made placing an added tax on non-Chicago commuters, suburbs and airlines — a tax he said would generate $800M annually — a centerpiece of his campaign.
Johnson said he would levy a "Metra city surcharge" that would raise $40M from the suburbs, an airline tax that would make “big airlines pay for polluting the air” and raise $98M, and “new user fees for high-end commercial districts frequented by the wealthy, suburbanites, tourists and business travelers” to generate $100M.
His plan also calls for reinstating a $4-a-month-per-employee tax on large companies that conduct more than half of their business in Chicago, which he said would generate $20M, and raising the Chicago hotel tax — already the nation’s highest, per the Chicago Sun-Times — to bring in another $30M.
"For too many people in the city of Chicago, we recognize value, but for too many of us, we don't believe it," Johnson said. "That changes under a Johnson administration."
