Uncertainty Dogs Capital Markets, Might Make CRE Financing Tougher

There may be still a lot of debt and equity looking for placement in commercial real estate deals, but uncertainty has crept back into the capital market. 

The macroeconomic outlook — the prospect of a recession and the fact that the real estate cycle is uncomfortably long — has made things a little cloudy, according to two CRE experts who will be speaking at Bisnow's Dallas Capital Markets and 2019 Forecast event Dec. 4.

Lending standards for commercial real estate deals seem to be tightening, Lever Energy Capital President Mark Boyer said.

"But I would not call them tight, nor is it unanimous. Some lenders are holding to their positions. It's a story of competing forces at the moment."

The resistance is coming from a number of factors, Boyer said. 

"Generally, the U.S. commercial real estate market has strong fundamentals and it looks strong relative to other investment or lending options," Boyer said.

"We all know the real estate market is late in this cycle, and in fact the market is showing signs of slowing — annual price growth has slowed to 6.4%, down from 8.4% at its peak — but compared to other options, real estate is relatively strong and far less volatile."  

Bay Mountain Capital Chief Investment Officer Will Dyer doesn't see the market necessarily tightening, though.

"Up until fairly recently we have been seeing the opposite, a loosening of standards due to the amount of equity chasing yield," he said.  

"It seems everyone has been getting into the private lending space, as equity returns are being compressed with rising real estate prices and costs. Also, Wall Street has now come back into the market as a conduit and is buying debt, both commercial and nonowner-occupied single-family residential, to securitize, thus allowing for the entrance of more non-balance sheet lenders adding to the competition."

Large quantities of private capital are still seeking a home, Boyer said. Private capital seems to be able and willing, at a premium, to pick up most of the slack driven by traditional institutional debt tightening their standards.

One force driving a tightening of lending standards is the sentiment that the CRE cycle is late, and timing a peak is next to impossible, Boyer said.

"The fact that equities, oil and corporate bonds have all declined rapidly in recent weeks, and there's a tremendous amount of global economic uncertainty, are factors leading to a sell-off across the board and stirring fears of a recession," Boyer said.  

"If the sell-off continues, which many believe it will, then markets will continue to tighten and there will be a continued flight to quality, which will likely be reflected in commercial real estate lending standards."

With the recent rise in interest rates, the market is starting to see a bit of a pullback/tightening of standards as rates are starting to compress, Dyer said.

"Hopefully, this tightening will help to push out a little of the competition, allowing seasoned private lenders continue to grow," Dyer said.

Find out more about capital markets from Boyer and Dyer and the other speakers at Bisnow's Dallas Capital Markets and 2019 Forecast event, which will be on Dec. 4 at the Westin Galleria Dallas.