Irish Residential Zoning Not Mapping With Demand, New Report Warns

There is enough residential-zoned land across Ireland to build 417,000 new homes, but much of it is not in the locations where households are situated, according to a new report by stockbroker Goodbody.

Its analysis revealed that while just over a third of all available residential land is in the east and midlands region, nearly half of all households are based there. That compares with the northern and western regions, where 40% of all available land is located, even though only 18% of households are situated there.

The authors of the report said that having enough zoned and serviced land available is crucial if more ambitious housing supply targets are to be achieved, with an estimated 7,911 hectares of residentially zoned and serviced land nationwide that does not yet have active planning.

Goodbody also questioned the housing targets detailed in the draft National Planning Framework.

"We believe the housing target of 50,000 units per annum in the draft NPF is conservative due to population household size assumptions," Goodbody Chief Economist Dermot O'Leary said in a statement launching the findings. "And given that the location of the available residential zoned land does not match the need in the key population centres of the country, the scale of the challenge becomes apparent."

He added that the Economic and Social Research Institute has updated its population and household projection scenarios to help inform the NPF, with baseline population growth predictions of 0.9% per annum to 2040, with growth weighted to the earlier part to 2030, which would see the population reach 6.1 million people.

"However, this does not account for the existing housing deficit, estimated by the Housing Commission to be circa 235,000 units," he said, adding that the average household size has been artificially inflated because of the lack of housing supply since the financial crisis. "Taking account of this yields an estimate of housing requirements in excess of 50,000 per annum. In our report, we modelled for two additional scenarios — 55,000 and 60,000 per annum."

The analysis also found that among a sample of land banks owned by eight large Irish homebuilders with the potential to supply 20,000 units, a significant amount had not been activated for over 15 years because of infrastructure issues.

The Land Development Agency has driven much of the new affordable housing stock in Ireland and has confirmed that plans have been approved by An Bord Pleanála for 708 cost rental and social homes at Cherry Orchard in Dublin 10.

In all, 547 cost rental and 161 social housing homes will be built at Cherry Orchard Point, a joint Land Development Agency and Dublin City Council project that will deliver a new community on 13 hectares owned by the council.

The approved development includes both housing and commercial units and represents Phase 1 of a scheme in the Park West-Cherry Orchard Local Area Plan. In total, this could deliver more than 1,100 homes and is the largest joint project being undertaken by the LDA and DCC.

The homes will comprise 28 studio apartments, 263 one-bed, 368 two-bed and 49 three-bed apartments across buildings ranging from four to 15 storeys. 

The approval also includes a supermarket, retail and commercial units, internal and external community and cultural spaces, a childcare facility, landscaped public open space, an outdoor fitness trail, a playground and a multi-use games area. Construction is expected to begin by the end of 2025.