First Quarter Investment Slumps As Big Trophy Sales Are Pulled

Central London investment volumes dropped sharply at the start of 2018, with several big trophy sales being pulled and a lack of stock for sale at the opposite end of the market.

Last year was near records, with £16B sold, beginning with £4.43B in the first quarter. But Q1 of 2018 saw investment volumes of £2.46B according to Savills, a 44% drop compared to the same period last year, and 14% below the 10-year average of £2.86B.

Savills put the drop down to a lack of available stock, particularly at the smaller end of the market.

“With investor interest remaining high, the lack of available stock is likely to continue to frustrate [West End and City of London] markets,” Savills Head of Central London Investment Stephen Down said.

“The supply/demand imbalance is particularly evident at the lower price points, where there is a wide pool of investors, both foreign and domestic, hunting for stock.”

There are £3B of assets under offer, which Savills presented as evidence of strong demand, with 20% of that unconditionally exchanged.

But another data point from Knight Frank highlights an issue at the top end of the market also. The agent said £3.4B of assets were withdrawn from the City of London market at the end of 2017 because the market for larger lot sizes was getting worse.

Some of those buildings were never formally on the market — for instance the Gherkin was only going to be sold if someone came in with a huge bid of £1B or more.

But Plantation Place saw its price tag cut by £50M to £650M and still failed to find a buyer, and assets like Tower Bridge House, with a £200M price tag, hung around for almost a year before being withdrawn.

Blackstone is considering withdrawing the £430M sale of 125 Old Broad St., Estates Gazette reported.