Industry Vet Anthony Lorenz Talks With Us About The (Awesome) State Of London
Now that the initial impact from Brexit has passed, all the panic and overblown rhetoric surrounding the vote seems a little…well, embarrassing. Industry vet Anthony Lorenz of the Anthony Lorenz Consultancy, gives us an overview of London’s state of the market after Brexit, and reminds us to Keep Calm and Carry On.
The bottom line is that the Brexit vote, like a general election, created certainty, Anthony says. It’s a welcome relief after the pre-Brexit chaos, which Anthony observed but didn’t participate in. Maybe it’s his natural confidence—like the kind displayed here on his polo pony(below)—or his 50 years of experience, but he was never really worried about Brexit, whatever the outcome.
He cites David Cameron saying we’d have World War III if Brexit happened. People were talking about it in pubs up and down the country, stirred up against the status quo. The threat of it was exaggerated beyond belief, Anthony says. That panic filters down from the media to investors and bankers and gets blown out of all proportion.
The impact hardly justified the pre-Brexit furore. Derwent and Great Portland Estates lost about 40% of the value of their shares but within days had recovered to about -10% of their value, and now are about on par with pre-Brexit prices.
Even news of the frozen funds was a gimmick, Anthony says. He points out the pension funds are the large investors in those funds, and when they suspended trading individuals took out their money and bought shares in Derwent and Great Portland estates for a 40% discount.
“When they pull out of those funds it doesn’t mean they’re coming out of property,” Anthony says. We shouldn’t be fooled by the reshuffling.
Business is still very good. Only about one transaction out of 80 was affected. “The market held up,” he says. Commercial rents are rising, Anthony says. He’s seeing a lot of enquiries and a lot of expansions. “Post-Brexit is busier than pre-Brexit,” he says.
Anthony knows of only two deals that fell through via a Brexit escape clause. But even if there were more deals that fell through, Anthony says, that isn’t the end of the world. Market activity creates demand even when downsizing. He points out that if a company with 80 employees and 40k SF reduces its footprint to 10k SF, those people are still moving, and leases are still being signed. “The market is musical chairs,” he says.
London, once known for its insurance, lawyers and accountants, now can add technology to that list. Tech is here to stay, Anthony says. He points out the Pokémon craze: more employees are needed to service the product; those people go out to eat, restaurants expand and so on.
Anthony is incredulous that there was such an uproar over HSBC moving a thousand people to Paris. “HSBC had only 150k SF in Canary Wharf!” he says. When you consider how much space has been occupied since Brexit compared to the loss of 150k SF feet…well, you see his point.
“The press are exaggerating the impact of HSBC’s move to Paris,” Anthony says dryly.
The EU is in a much worse trade position than the UK, Anthony says. They need us more than we need them. He cites China’s recent £1B deal with the City of Sheffield. “The UK is doing just fine,” he says.
London is a vibrant city where people want to live and work. Regent Street is packed. Soho is packed. Businesses are not suffering right now, Anthony says. Retail demand is stronger than ever. We have a weakening pound, which is excellent for tourism, and for people who want to get on the property ladder.
Anthony points out that London is constantly expanding. Ten years ago you could buy a place in Shoreditch for £20/SF but now you’d be lucky to find anything for £50/SF.
London also has a peculiar geographic advantage: it sits perfectly between the Tokyo stock exchange and the US stock exchange in New York. The City is couched between news from Tokyo in the morning and news from New York in the evening. It is, literally, the centre of the universe.
