Real Estate's Next Generation Pick The Big Stories For 2021 And Beyond
Tired of bland predictions from the usual cast of conservative senior real estate leaders? To get fresh insight, Bisnow canvassed a group of younger professionals who will be at the forefront of shaping the sector in the decades to come to get their view on the big stories to watch in 2021 and beyond.
Rebeca Guzman Vidal, Group Head of Retail Strategy, Chelsfield
Bisnow: What will be the biggest property story of 2021?
Guzman Vidal: I hope the biggest takeaway from 2020 is a genuine, real focus on 2020. The industry plays such a huge role in the economy and society as a whole, and I genuinely think this reset is what we all needed to drive ESG efforts and build better places for everyone. I’m excited to see new initiatives being deployed and new partnerships being formed, I think that’s where the story will be.
Bisnow: Looking further ahead, what will be the biggest property story of 2031?
Guzman Vidal: Real estate as a service. I think the concept of ownership and rent collection will fundamentally change — occupiers will need to drive increasing productivity from their portfolios and that in turn will put pressure on the investor/owner community to do a lot more than simply provide a space. For me, it’s one of the most exciting changes coming.
Bisnow: What piece of technology will have the biggest impact on property next year?
Guzman Vidal: Any proptech tool or platform that can improve the quality of life of the end user, particularly around health, safety and wellness. The pandemic has no doubt put this front and centre this year but I think this is a “trend” that is here to stay. People are going to expect more from the places they live and work in.
Bisnow: What sector will provide the best five-year returns?
Guzman Vidal: [Private rented sector]. Younger generations view ownership very differently — I include myself in this — and I think the appeal of PRS from a flexibility and mobility standpoint is only going to increase in a post-COVID world.
Bisnow: Who do you most admire in the world/who is going to change the world in 2021?
Guzman Vidal: I have huge admiration for Melinda Gates, who is the driving force behind The Gates Foundation. Melinda and Bill were one of the few thought leaders who raised awareness about global pandemics and we have a lot to learn from them both. As for who will change the world in 2021, the year will belong to the brave entrepreneurs who are starting businesses now and will embark on scaling them in 2021. I think we are going to discover new services and products borne out of the crisis that we didn’t even know we needed.
Bisnow: What's the biggest change you'd like to see in property?
Guzman Vidal: More diversity and real inclusion in our industry. For an industry that has such influence in the way our cities are shaped and therefore how people live day-to-day, representation is poor even compared to other major industries — think financial services and other professional services. We need to get future generations excited about property and all its nuances — but we simply cannot do that if everyone working in real estate looks and thinks broadly the same.
Yohance Harper, Associate Partner, Quadrant Estates
Bisnow: What will be the biggest property story of 2021?
Harper: Residential — the tension between the potential for population dispersion due to flexible working (dampening demand/value growth) and the rebalancing of capital from various forms of commercial to residential, i.e. house price growth in London versus the regions and the knock-on impacts in areas like infrastructure, wealth distribution and society at large.
Bisnow: Looking further ahead, what will be the biggest property story of 2031?
Harper: Industrial. The take-up of driverless trucks/drones changing distribution networks and the value proposition of distribution locations. People are buying 10- to 15-year income for locations that will become obsolete or threaten before the end of the lease.
Bisnow: What piece of technology will have the biggest impact on property next year?
Harper: The distribution solution that Amazon will find to undertake deliveries more effectively.
Bisnow: What sector will provide the best five-year returns?
Harper: That advice won’t come free!
Bisnow: Who do you most admire in the world/who is going to change the world in 2021?
Harper: Hopefully when you ask me this in 2030, I can legitimately/humbly say me.
Bisnow: What's the biggest change you'd like to see in property?
Harper: The slow reaction to change in the industry and the backward-looking nature of valuations.
Sebastian Abigail, Vice President, Business Development, and Elliott Sparsis, Head of UK, Convene
Bisnow: What will be the biggest property story of 2021?
Abigail and Sparsis: The rebound of pent-up demand — headlines of “How did we survive without the office?”
Bisnow: Looking further ahead, what will be the biggest property story of 2031?
Abigail and Sparsis: We have no idea what the stories will be in 10 years! But we’re certain we won’t be reading about occupiers signing 10-year-plus office leases on spaces sub 20K SF.
Bisnow: What piece of technology will have the biggest impact on property next year?
Abigail and Sparsis: The technology that enables virtual team members to integrate, collaborate, contribute and have a seamless virtual or hybrid experience from anywhere in the world.
Bisnow: What sector will provide the best five-year returns?
Abigail and Sparsis: We’re big fans of operational real estate. If buying now, amidst many strong contenders, we’d say hospitality, health care and wellness, where there’s plenty of scope for yield compression and rental growth amidst enthusiastic demographically driven demand.
Bisnow: Who do you most admire in the world/who is going to change the world in 2021?
Abigail and Sparsis: Our wives, for putting up with us and for being the glue that holds our families together. We hope that 2021 will be the year where everyone’s combined resilience is rewarded with a huge economic and emotional bounce back.
Bisnow: What's the biggest change you'd like to see in property?
Abigail and Sparsis: A better understanding from the capital markets on valuing operational income streams to encompass the growing significance of managed operational company hospitality agreements.
Joseph Daniels, Chief Executive and founder, Project Etopia
Bisnow: What will be the biggest property story of 2021?
Daniels: Etopia's $1B valuation or, if it happens in November, Etopia Build with [explorer and activist] Robert Swan, creating a net-zero building on Antarctica.
Bisnow: Looking further ahead, what will be the biggest property story of 2031?
Daniels: Plans for a cityscape confirmed for Mars colonization.
Bisnow: What piece of technology will have the biggest impact on property next year?
Daniels: Etopia's retrofit technology Uplift.
Bisnow: What sector will provide the best five-year returns?
Daniels: Cleantech.
Bisnow: Who do you most admire in the world/who is going to change the world in 2021?
Daniels: Elon Musk
Bisnow: What's the biggest change you'd like to see in property?
Daniels: Acceptance of a new digital planning scheme and mainstream [use] of net-zero building.
