Hyperloop One’s Global Field Ops Manager On What Musk’s Transport System Will Mean For Cities
“It has the potential to change not only how we live and work, but how we build cities.”
Hyperloop One global field operations manager Paul Smith is talking about the way the proposed new transport system originally conceived by Elon Musk could have a revolutionary impact on real estate, and the way national economies work.
Hyperloop has the potential to rebalance economies away from a few major cities and redistribute real estate value that is concentrated in those places, Smith said. He uses the U.K. as an example, but this is a potentially global change.
“It would be phenomenal to be able to enjoy the wages you can earn in London but the cost of living you get in other parts of the country,” he said. “For recruiters, the pool of people you would be able to recruit from would be 10 times greater than previously.”
Hyperloop is in the process of moving from outlandish idea to reality. The science behind it is complex, but the technology needed to make the system feasible is rapidly advancing. In a recent test, Hyperloop One achieved speeds of 192 mph, approaching the 250 mph speed it is trying to achieve on its test track. On long straight routes between cities, it will look to reach speeds of 500 mph.
Why would it affect real estate so radically? That speed creates an exponential reduction in journey times. Los Angeles to Las Vegas, currently two hours and eight minutes by train, would take 30 minutes. London to Edinburgh, four hours and 17 minutes by train, would take 51 minutes, including stops along the way.
Hyperloop One, one of two companies developing the technology to bring the system to fruition, recently picked 10 routes as part of a global challenge to take the project forward. Each route has a team working on proposals, a mixture of private sector companies, academics and regional or state bodies.
Four of the winning routes are in the U.S., two in the U.K. (including London to Edinburgh), two in India, one in Canada and one in Mexico.
Hyperloop One has teamed up with the Colorado Department of Transportation to undertake a feasibility study on a Colorado route to identify demand, quantify potential economic benefits, identify regulatory requirements and work on mapping actual routes and physical infrastructure requirements.
‘We’re not necessarily going to build all of those routes in the next five to 10 years, but the teams are exploring the potential and how the Hyperloop system could improve life around the world in terms of reducing pollution and increasing connectivity,” Smith said. Hyperloop One has a target of carrying freight by 2021 and passengers by 2022.
Smith has experienced how difficult it can be to build a business outside of a major capital city. He hails from Newcastle in the North East of England, and ran his own firm before joining Hyperloop One.
“Throughout my career living and working in Newcastle, if you had clients in London you wanted to see, you had to use the train,” he said. “It’s incredibly expensive and it is three hours each way, so realistically you could do that journey once a week. Often people would cancel the meeting on the day, as is their right, so you had to decide, do you pay to travel again, which is expensive, or miss the meeting?
“It is incredibly difficult trying to grow a business outside a powerhouse like London, but with Hyperloop you would be able to arbitrage being based outside of London and the cost benefits of that and still have access to clients based there.”
Of course, cost is a huge factor in whether Hyperloop becomes a reality. Musk estimated that a California Hyperloop route would cost around $17M per mile to develop and construct. A University of Queensland academic who ran the numbers put the figure as much as 10 times higher.
But experts have consensus on the environmental benefits — and of course reduced pollution and energy needs have an economic benefit too. A feasibility analysis by the U.S. Department of Transportation estimated that Hyperloop could be as much as six times more energy efficient than short-haul flights.
In terms of powering the system, solar power has been posited in regions like California, Mexico or India where there is plenty of sunshine, a factor that would also reduce running costs and thus ticket prices.
But Smith said in places like England where solar would not be viable, the system would still be energy-efficient, both from other forms of renewable energy like wind, but also because of the infrastructure itself.
“We're still at the theory stage, but the system is very energy-efficient,” he said. “Once you have accelerated, the lack of friction in the system means you can cruise for 30-40 km at a time, so it is still more efficient compared to other forms of transport.”
Britain is planning to spend more than £50B on a new high-speed rail line that will shave 15 minutes off the one hour and 30 minute journey from London to Birmingham. Hyperloop would do this journey in 16 minutes. The route would be finished in 2033.
So much about Hyperloop is currently theoretical. But if it does become a reality, it will change the way cities are connected and have an immeasurable effect on real estate.
Hear from Smith and other transport and city experts at Bisnow's Building the Future event in London on 10 October.
