Split Roll Thwarted For Now As Prop. 15 Fails By Slim Margin

After a close race, the ballot measure that would have raised property taxes for millions of commercial and industrial properties in California has narrowly failed, the Associated Press reported Tuesday night. 

With 90% of precincts reporting, 51.8% of the votes had been cast against Proposition 15. If passed, Prop. 15 would have taxed commercial and industrial properties based on current market value, repealing part of Prop. 13, the 1978 ballot measure that has dictated how property taxes are set since it was approved that year.

"Today’s victory should send a clear message to the proponents and warn all politicians that voters will continue to reject attempts to dismantle Prop 13.," said Rob Lapsley, president of the California Business Roundtable and co-chair of the No on Prop. 15 campaign.

Pre-election polling hinted that this race would be very close: A September poll by the Public Policy Institute of California of 1,700 residents found that it was favored by 51% of voters. 

Prop. 13 has kept property taxes based on the sale price of a property and yearly increases capped, resulting in a boon for homeowners and property owners who would otherwise be paying handsomely for California's ever-rising property values. Prop. 15 would have applied to holdings valued at $3M or more, with the reassessments beginning in 2022. 

Supporters of the measure touted its benefits for public schools and community colleges, which were slated to receive as much as $11.5B in additional tax revenue, according to the state's Legislative Analyst’s Office. But opponents argued it would send property tax bills sky-high. A release from the No on 15 campaign called Prop. 13 "the greatest tax protection measure left in the highest taxed state in the country overwhelmingly passed by voters more than 40 years ago."

Massive property owners with large portfolios in the state also warned that repealing part of Prop. 13 would lead to small businesses closing their doors, disastrous repercussions for ranchers and farmers, and a trickle-down effect for consumers as businesses raised prices to compensate. 

Supporters and opponents of Prop. 15 spent a combined $142.7M on their campaigns — $68.2M from supporters and $74.5M from the opposition. 

Among the biggest spenders in support of the measure were the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative LLC — a charity owned and established by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan — which gave $14.4M to the campaign, and the California Teachers Association Issues PAC, which donated $19.8M. 

California Business Roundtable Issues PAC spent $39.2M fighting against the passage of Prop. 15.