A Surprise Recovery?

That isnt a new bubble you see inflating in South Florida CRE, especially multifamily. (It's more of an exercise ball.) Long-term growth is fueling the recovery in all sectors, Integra Realty Resources managing director Scott Powell tells us.

The rate of recovery of the local housing market, both in terms of price appreciation and in deal volume, has been surprising, Scott says, especially considering how much inventory was added during the previous boom. Now a lot of people are surprised to see double-digit price appreciation among owner-occupied housing in 2013, which is being fueled by pent-up demand and a shortage of inventory, he notes, but adds that once deliveries of new construction pick up, prices should level out and we should see more modest growth. The shadow inventory of foreclosed homes remains a risk, but that has been somewhat mitigated by small and large investors buying up a lot of inventory.

Housing and employment recovery is driving up consumer demand for other goods and services, and retail has been the biggest benefactor of this trend, Scott continues. (As soon as people get cash they need a new jacket.) He cites Florida economist Bill Pittengers Housing Multiplier Effect, which predicts a benefit to retail from a housing recovery. Integra said this week in its Q1 report on Miami CRE that retail, office, and industrial vacancies are all down from 2012. Mostly, Scott points out, a lack of new supply is driving the trend, especially for office space. But thatisn'tthe case with retail, which has also seen increases in rents and a huge increase in sales activity since this time last year.