Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Provides Another Signal For September Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve's top metric for tracking inflation showed July prices in line with expectations, providing a key data point as the central bank decides how much to cut rates at its next meeting.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 0.2% in July from June, matching up with Wall Street's expectations. It rose 2.6% year-over-year, a tick below the 2.7% analyst expectation, Yahoo Finance reported. The PCE tracks the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in the country.
The data is the first new read on inflation since Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this month gave the strongest indicator yet that a rate cut is coming in September, saying "The time has come."
The question has now become how aggressively the Fed will cut rates. As of Aug. 30, there is a 67.5% chance of a 25-basis-point drop and a 32.5% chance of a 50-bps drop, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
“A Fed rate cut in September is assured after Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech,” Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers wrote in a note to clients Friday morning, according to Yahoo Finance. “But the further cooling of inflation could give the Fed leeway to be more aggressive with rate declines at coming meetings, especially if the labor market shows a steep deterioration.”
The next key data point for the Fed will be the August employment numbers released next Friday, and if more job loss occurs it could lead to a deeper cut, Seeking Alpha reported. Consumer spending data has also indicated to economists that the economy remains strong.
“This is a double dose of good news on inflation and economic growth,” said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings. “Inflation prints are slowly but surely becoming boring again as this report continues the recent streak of benign core and headline inflation prints.
“Consumer spending continues to surprisingly exceed all expectations, a clear indication that the economy continues to be in good shape with solid above-trend growth."
While commercial real estate players are anticipating rate cuts will help heat up the market, some have cautioned that it could be “like a mirage” that doesn't ultimately fix the underlying problems in the market.
