Green Street: Property Price Appreciation Expected To Slow, Weighed Down By Bonds

U.S. commercial property values are in a holding pattern and aren't expected to pick back up until interest rates settle further. 

The Federal Reserve announced Thursday that it would cut the base interest rate another 25 basis points in addition to the 50-basis-point cut in September. However, rate relief has yet to show up in commercial real estate in a significant way.

The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index did not change in October. Interest rates played a big part, the firm said. 

Property appreciation was expected to accelerate, but medium-term interest rates turned higher and stymied that, Green Street co-Head of Strategic Research Peter Rothemund said in a statement.

Property prices had been chugging upward since December 2023, and in the past three months alone, commercial property prices appreciated 3%, according to Green Street. But that has paused for now. In October, none of the property sectors Green Street includes in its index saw a change in values. 

"If bond yields stay at current levels, I wouldn’t expect real estate prices to increase much," Rothemund said. 

Commercial property prices are still down 19% from its 2022 peak, the index shows. 

The core sector for the index, which is made of apartment, industrial, office and retail assets, was down 21% from its spring 2022 peak. Only self-storage, down 21%, and office, down 37%, saw larger drops among the sectors in the index. 

Green Street's property price index is based on "frequently updated estimates of price appreciation of the property portfolios" owned by the REITs it tracks.