Property Values Rose 5% In 2024, But This Year's Outlook 'Not As Bright'

High-profile discounted sales dominated commercial real estate discourse in 2024, but new data shows values overall rose last year.

Green Street’s Commercial Property Price Index, which aims to capture current trading prices, remained flat in December but closed the year with a cumulative 4.8% increase in values across all property types over the last 12 months. 

Still, the research firm warned that macroeconomic pressures mean the sector is unlikely to maintain that pace of growth through 2025. 

“Property prices increased about 5% last year. The outlook for this year is not as bright.” Peter Rothemund, co-head of strategic research at Green Street, said in a statement. “The run-up in Treasury yields over the past few months is likely to cause property prices to stagnate.”

While values have increased from last December, they remain 17.8% off the 2022 market peak, according to Green Street. 

Performance varied widely across sectors, but prices had increased or remained unchanged from a year ago across all verticals except lodging, self-storage and office, which saw 3%, 2% and 1% declines in value, respectively. 

Malls were the strongest performers, up 17% year-over-year and off just 6% from 2022 peak pricing. Apartment assets also cracked double-digit price growth at 14% on the year, although those properties are still trading at prices 20% lower than the market peak. 

Other sectors tracked by Green Street posted single-digit growth percentages, with strip retail at 8% year-over-year price growth and data center values rising 5%. No property type is trading today above 2022 valuation levels.

Consensus sentiment is that valuations bottomed out in 2024, but Rothemund said the shifting macroeconomic outlook is likely to slow growth in 2025.