2024 Isn’t Going To Plan. 61 Global CRE Execs Tell Us What Has Surprised Them — And What’s Next

H alftime is over and commercial real estate is now back on the clock.

As the industry enters the third quarter, it is grappling with an acute, ever-murkier question: Can it actually turn the corner in 2024?

Back in January, Bisnow asked leading executives in the U.S. and Europe to explain how they would “survive till ‘25” — the industry’s war cry as it pondered what 2024 might bring. At that time, sentiments were mixed but overwhelmingly optimistic. 

While some executives joked about their “crystal ball being broken” after the wild pandemic years, the consensus leaned toward maintaining existing strategies — with places like Florida being hailed as a “clean shirt in a dirty laundry pile.” (It’s not unsoiled anymore, as we reported in March.)

However, one prediction did come true in deeply unsettling ways: “2024 will largely depend on what happens with interest rates,” one executive presciently said.

Multiple rate cuts were predicted this year. So far, not even one has materialized — and it’s plausible that none will in 2024. In a forthcoming Bisnow survey, 49.4% of CRE executives still believe at least one rate cut will come by the end of the year, a far cry from the 37.8% who in January predicted two cuts. 

So, now what? Over the last month, the Bisnow newsroom spoke to 61 real estate executives to find out how they are managing the situation — higher-for-longer rates, persistent inflation, geopolitical instability, a potential banking crisis, asset class segmentation and contraction, and AI integration challenges.

This time around, we asked executives to reflect on three pivotal questions, which can be found below.

As the industry heads into the second half, these insights paint a clearer view of the complex dynamics shaping the industry as it navigates, as one executive put it, a new reality (and perhaps a new slogan):

“Need to make up a new rhyme, because it is going to take more time.” 

— Bisnow Editors