The Year of CMBS?
Trepp's Joe McBride says the industry expects $65B to $100B in new CMBS issuance this year, up from a previous projection of $50B to $80B. Many of those new loans will be used on the refi side (and help absorb the threat of default), though CMBS will also play a large role in acquisition debt. As of the January, the most delinquent cities are Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Jacksonville, he says. (Chicks dig the bad guys, so we expect everyone's sister cities to swoon.) The best performing: Seattle, San Diego, SanFrancisco, Pittsburgh, and Boston. New York would be there too if it weren't for the ever-looming Stuyvesant Town debt. As long as Bernanke and the Fed keep interest rates low (or near zero) and continue to purchase bonds, he says investors will seek the higher yields of CMBS and CRE loans.
