As 8% Mortgage Rates Quash Home Sales, Economists Warn Of A 'Huge Ripple Effect'

Securing a mortgage to buy a home has become more expensive than at any time since 2000, making people less likely to move and restricting the migration flows that have become more common during the pandemic.

The number of existing homes sold in the U.S. has fallen every month since February due in large part to spiking mortgage rates. The standard 30-year fixed mortgage rate started this year around 6% — already double the rate during the early part of the pandemic — and it has shot up over the last several months to reach 8% last week, a 23-year high. 

Those elevated rates are having wide-reaching negative implications for the economy. 

“Without the economic dynamism that comes with mobility — not only economic mobility but residential mobility that people also associate with their economic improvement — without that, it makes the economy sluggish,” National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told Bisnow. 

In September, existing home sales were down 15.4% year-over-year and 2% month-over-month, according to the National Association of Realtors. That sluggish volume causes ripples across the economy, economists said, as industries tied to home sales domino in conjunction with the slowdown. 

“There's a huge echo effect,” Mortgage Bankers Association Executive Director Eddie Seilar said. “You buy a house, you often renovate it … people who produce carpets, people who produce furniture, appliance manufacturers [are impacted]. So it's got this huge ripple effect across the economy, in many ways.” 

Yun also pointed to these sectors as vulnerable to the impact of rising mortgage rates, and he said the overall housing industry comprises 15% of the U.S. economy. 

“All these parts are diminished,” Yun said. “So the economy will weaken.” 

Rates were at record lows during the first two years of the pandemic when the federal government dropped its benchmark rate to zero and funneled dollars into mortgage-backed securities. People used those low rates, along with their remote work policies and newfound appreciation of the outdoors, as an impetus to move to other parts of the country. 

But less than two years later, a swift uptick in mortgage rates, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s hikes, has owners hesitant to move, as they want to hold on to those cheaper mortgages. 

“They're not willing to give up 3% mortgage rates when the market rate today is 7%,” Chris Porter, the chief demographer at John Burns Research and Consulting, told Bisnow last month. “We're seeing slower rates of migration in real time simply because more people have moved in recent years and are adjusted to the cost of living.”

As owners choose to stay in their homes rather than trade in their rates, companies are choosing to remain flexible in their return-to-work policies, to the benefit of those who may have moved during the pandemic and are now priced out of moving back, MBA’s Seilar said.

He pointed to news that Boston Consulting Group rented a coworking space in October 2022 for employees who had moved to the Raleigh-Durham area earlier in the pandemic, rather than making them return to one of the company’s main offices. 

“These companies are taking offices in shared office space like WeWork for a few days a week, having people come together, but they’re not forcing mass moves,” Seilar said.

A lack of affordable options in many metro areas is also causing those buyers who are choosing to purchase properties to relocate to areas of the country with cheaper real estate. And companies are following suit. 

“When we look at the jobs numbers, which are directly correlated with where the companies are expanding or relocating, we see job growth essentially happening in the Southern states … and in the Rocky Mountain states,” Yun said, referring to job growth numbers in states like Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Texas, Colorado, Utah and Idaho. 

“These are the regions where companies appear to be relocating or companies are expanding,” he said. 

Meanwhile, would-be first-time buyers who are now shut out of purchasing a home due to the inflated mortgage rates will need to continue to rent, fueling the multifamily sector.

“Renters are forced to lease longer, renew their leases, and consequently, that is boosting the overall rental demand,” Yun said. “Charlotte, Omaha, Dallas, you see a construction crane, probably they're building apartments.”

In response to the stalled home sales market and the increased demand for apartments, some developers have launched new expansions in the build-to-rent market, such as American Real Estate Partners and Foulger-Pratt.

“You've got move-up buyers, who would traditionally go from apartments into townhomes or single families ... who now can't afford to go buy these townhouses,” AREP President Brian Katz told Bisnow in August. 

These economic implications could become more pronounced the longer rates remain high, and Yun and Seiler said they expect mortgage rates to remain above 6% until at least the end of 2024.

“Until mortgage rates [aren’t] stuck at this level, then expect sluggish conditions — economy, home sales,” Yun said. “But if the mortgage rate begins to go down sometime next year, then we'll begin to see the increase in dynamism for the country.”