Election 2024: Here's Everything That’s At Stake For CRE

The presidential race is nearing its ultimate conclusion.

And you probably already know who you are going to vote for. But just in case you need a little more information — a little more context for how former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could reshape commercial real estate in the years ahead — Bisnow has you covered.

Although it is widely believed that election years bring a slowdown in deals as investors await the results, data shows otherwise. Leases and sales typically hold steady, with the election outcome having a minimal long-term effect on trends. 

However, for various economic factors, this year is different: persistent inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and the woozy effects of the pandemic are still very much on CRE’s collective mind. The typical patterns don't apply right now. Will they ever again? 

It’s on the minds of Trump and Harris, too, as well as the deep-pocketed real estate grandees who have contributed millions upon millions of dollars to their respective campaign war chests. 

As economic policy goes, so goes the multitrillion-dollar industry. And just like at the top of the issues list for many Americans, CRE's concerns start with the economy, the country’s housing predicament, the places you live and do business and, yes, even immigration.

For the 2024 election, here’s everything you need to know about what’s at stake for commercial real estate.

Housing

Harris and Trump Agree On Lowering Housing Costs — But Their Plans Take Radically Different Paths

Housing is a top three issue this election, and both major candidates have plans to boost supply, which has advocates hopeful there will be real change. Trump is mostly focused on loosening regulations, while Harris is looking at more tax incentives for builders. Read more.

Both Presidential Candidates Want To Solve The Housing Crisis. Do They Have The Power?

Presidents don't actually have that much say in housing policy. That's really more of a Congress thing. Here's what the new president will — and won't — be able to do. Read more.

How Project 2025’s Proposals Might Impact CRE

Though not an official Republican platform, Project 2025 is seen as a harbinger of what a Trump presidency can look like because of how many of its authors' recommendations Trump adopted during his first term. Most relevant to CRE: the document firmly supports single-family zoning and urges against the expansion of multifamily zoning. Read more. 

Report Shows Swing-State Voters Struggle To Afford An Apartment

One reason housing is expected to play a major role in this election is the large number of residents in swing states who can't afford rent. The average renter in a swing state earns 17% less than is needed to afford the local median rent. Read more.

Donations

Inside Trump’s Deep Base Of Support Among Real Estate Executives

Back when President Joe Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee, Trump was far outstripping him in terms of campaign donations from real estate entities. Supporters said Trump was the best option for the economy and to lift up commercial real estate. Read more. 

Money Flows To Harris, But Some Of Biden's CRE Backers Are Skeptical

Then Harris took over the ticket. Dollars and support flowed her way, including from CRE players — though the reasons were varied, and some Bisnow interviewed said it was more about voting against Trump than voting for Harris. Read more.

In Final Stretch Before The Election, Harris And Trump Tap Into Millions In Real Estate Dollars

And by mid-October, Trump and Harris were neck and neck for money raised from real estate. Bisnow interviewed supporters of both candidates about what drove their decision-making. Read more.

Economy

Everyone 'Knows' Elections Impact CRE. But Does The Data Back It Up?

You hear it constantly: CRE deal flow goes down in election years as everyone waits to see what is going to happen. But the numbers say otherwise — not only do leases and sales not drop in the lead-up to an election, but the results themselves have negligible effects. Read more. 

'Economy Grows Either Way': Peter Linneman On The Election, Interest Rate Cuts

The economy is another top three issue for voters, but economist Peter Linneman said the election won't impact that as much as people think. “It's not like this one [candidate] has perfect policies and that one has horrible,” he said. “They're both a mixture of politically viable, compromised policies that are not very good in a pure sense. The economy grows either way.” Read more.

Construction

How Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan Could Impact Construction

Construction experts say attempts to deport an estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrant workers from the U.S. — including hundreds of thousands in construction — would detrimentally affect CRE development. Construction has been dealing with a significant labor shortage for years. Read more. 

Election Won’t Derail Big Manufacturing Projects, But It Could Change Their Course 

The CHIPS and Science and Inflation Reduction acts have led to a boom in manufacturing construction, but the $220B in announced projects have been slow to deliver. That's partially because of uncertainty over what the next administration will do. Read more.

Office

Future Of Federal Office Use Still Uncertain As Election Approaches

Everyone agrees: The federal government has too much office space. But just how much it shrinks its footprint will depend on the return-to-office position the head of the federal government, the president, takes next year. Until that person comes in and sets a policy, federal agencies are holding off on making long-term office leasing decisions. Read more.

Local

California:

Rent Control In California: What You Need To Know About Proposition 33

This statewide measure would end the Costa-Hawkins Act, which defined what apartments and rental homes can have limits placed on rent increases. Doing so would allow local governments to make their own decisions about rent control and would ban any future statewide rent control policy. Read more.

Florida:

If Florida Legalizes Weed On Election Day, CRE Could Feel The Effects 'Right Away'

Florida's Amendment 3 referendum would legalize recreational marijuana if it gets 60% approval. If it passes, Florida's industrial and retail industries will get a boost. Read more.

New York:

Here's Who Real Estate Leaders Are Backing In New York's Critical House Races

The race to determine who will represent New York in the U.S. House of Representatives is essentially a dead heat. Real estate has donated $231.4M to candidate campaigns this cycle. Bisnow broke down who the biggest players in NYC CRE are donating to and spoke to donors about what is driving their choices. Read more.

Houston: 

CRE Backs Largest School Bond In Texas History Despite Bipartisan Opposition. Here's Why

A $4.4B bond measure from the Houston Independent School District has broad opposition, but CRE is supporting it. The funds would expand school campuses, upgrade security, improve air and water quality, and invest in early childhood, career and technical education. One reason the CRE industry backs it: The average HISD school is 50 years old, and this industry understands the hazards and expenses that come with aging facilities. Read more.