'Oof': Economists React To May Jobs Report On Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 75,000 jobs in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, marking the country's 104th straight month of employment gains.
The unemployment rate held at 3.6%.
The construction industry added 4,000 jobs in May following an increase of 30,000 in April. The industry has added 215,000 jobs in the past 12 months. The manufacturing industry gained 3,000 jobs in May, while the retail industry lost 8,000 jobs.
March and April employment numbers were revised down in May's report, making combined gains for these months 75,000 less than previously reported. Following these revisions, job gains for the last three months have averaged 151,000 per month.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the jobs report on Twitter.
Jobs:
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) June 7, 2019
(via @tEconomics) pic.twitter.com/23BQWpy0lw
You can’t read too much into one jobs report, but today’s weak jobs number adds to a growing set of indicators that point to a weakening economy.
— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) June 7, 2019
As always, it's just one report, yada yada yada. BUT what makes this one interesting is both weak May job growth and negative revisions, which should change our assessment of how strong the labor market was this spring, all before trade war escalation.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) June 7, 2019
We've had 104 straight months of job growth in this recovery - only eight months have had job growth less than what we got this month.
— Martha Gimbel (@marthagimbel) June 7, 2019
Oof those downward revisions. https://t.co/TvwHEIgS1k
— Kate Bahn (@LipstickEcon) June 7, 2019
The 75K jobs in May is unsurprising and not worrying: we would expect job growth to slow and the ~150K/month pace we’re at should be fine.
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) June 7, 2019
The slowdown in wage growth is surprising and worrying. Was 3.1% in the last 12 months. Had been 3.4%. It should be rising not falling.
Remember that to keep up with population growth, we need about +120K jobs a month. The 3M moving average in May was +151K. It's slowed down since Jan but it's been lower in this late cycle: in Sep 2017 it was +136K.
— Ernie Tedeschi (@ernietedeschi) June 7, 2019
You know, 75,000 is not that far off from what we need each month to hold the unemployment rate steady, which is exactly what happened. One month doesn't make a trend, but these numbers are consistent with steady-state employment growth and unemployment holding at low levels. https://t.co/W84PhHQfXb
— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) June 7, 2019
Looking at specific industries, government actually lost jobs this month (due to state and local government)...retail sector continued to struggle pic.twitter.com/JlN2cn4IzK
— Martha Gimbel (@marthagimbel) June 7, 2019
Not good news from wages.
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) June 7, 2019
If employer demand for labor rises faster than new workers enter to supply, price (wage) should rise.
This month's estimate 3.1% growth over the year ticks down from last month (3.2%) & down from 3.4% 3 months ago.
My favorite jobs-report chart — helps explain the 2018 boom and why it’s unlikely to last. https://t.co/054nakgbX7
— Jed Kolko (@JedKolko) June 7, 2019
Sorry, here's the current probabilities after the jobs report. My God June is now 37% and July is 71%. What??? Careful what you wish for Mr Market, rate cuts aren't some TD to celebrate pic.twitter.com/zUgPAhGJ4r
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) June 7, 2019
Average monthly job gains in 2018: 223,000
— Rick Newman (@rickjnewman) June 7, 2019
In 2019 so far: 164,000
Hmmmm ...
