'Yowzas': Economists React To The September Jobs Report On X, Formerly Twitter
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 jobs in September, nearly double consensus estimates, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The unemployment rate held at 3.8%. Prior to the August jobs report, the unemployment rate had been at or below 3.7% since the end of the first quarter of 2022.
Leisure and hospitality added 96,000 jobs in September, including 61,000 jobs in food services and drinking places. The 61,000 additional jobs returned employment in leisure and hospitality to its February 2020, pre-pandemic level, according to the report.
Transportation and warehousing changed little in September, with truck transportation adding 9,000 jobs. The sector lost 25,000 jobs in August after trucking company Yellow filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Aug. 6.
Employment in other industries related to commercial real estate, specifically construction, manufacturing and retail trade, showed little change in September.
Here's how economists and others reacted to the jobs report on X, formerly Twitter.
--Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000!!!! in September
— talmon joseph smith (@talmonsmith) October 6, 2023
--unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8 percent
massive, massive beat....
+336k on payrolls. Yowzas.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) October 6, 2023
The economy is showing incredible resilience and strength.
— Betsey Stevenson (@BetseyStevenson) October 6, 2023
Strong job gains in September across the board:
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) October 6, 2023
Hospitality: +96,000
Government: +73,000 (lot of education hires)
Healthcare: +41,000
Social aid +25,000
Professional +21,000
Retail +20,000
Manufacturing +17,000
Construction +11,000
Warehouse +9,000
IT -5,000
Temp help -4,000
"Employment in food services and drinking places rose
— Martha Gimbel (@marthagimbel) October 6, 2023
by 61,000 over the month and has returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level." Congrats everyone, we did the hard work of going out to eat and it paid off
I have thought (and still think) if we were truly running out of workers in a strong economy we’d see a shift from retail and leisure employment into other industries. So when leisure job growth is strong like it was in September it makes me think we’re not close to that.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) October 6, 2023
Construction employment up 11k, manufacturing up 17k, these two highly cyclical sectors are doing just fine
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) October 6, 2023
"Overall, the report suggests the labor market is enjoying a soft landing. ... with wage growth and price inflation rapidly fading and the rise in long yields triggering a significant tightening in financial conditions, we still think the Fed is done hiking." @CapEconUS
— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) October 6, 2023
The core question has moved from whether inflation is over to how long the economy can handle rates this high. While I believe the economy cannot handle rates this high for that long, job growth this fast is a certainly datapoint in favor of it being able to.
— Adam Ozimek (@ModeledBehavior) October 6, 2023
Goodness, that’s a strong jobs #. Both the outsized 336k job gain and the upward revisions. Bond yields are surging as investors anticipate another Fed hike. Not that the Fed should oblige, as much slower job growth is dead ahead and wage and price pressures continue to ease.
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) October 6, 2023
If I were a person who attended a meeting in the Eccles Building every six weeks, I'd be feeling good after this week's labor market data.
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) October 6, 2023
The things growth pessimists have been focusing on over the last several months don't exactly back them up today. Revisions? Those were up. "Cyclical" payroll growth? That has picked up too. No jobs report is perfect, but there is no signs of a sharp deceleration here.
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) October 6, 2023
Somewhat belated by my usual standards, but my broad takeaways about the US labor mkt from this report:
— Skanda Amarnath (@IrvingSwisher) October 6, 2023
1. Resilience (see payroll growth)
2. Normalization (see cooling in wage growth & household survey estimates of job growth)
3. Support for higher investment & productivity
