Migration Into Areas With High Flooding, Wildfire Risks Has Skyrocketed Since Pandemic

The more than 1 million Americans who relocated to other states during the pandemic frequently chose locations that are the most at risk of flooding, wildfires and extreme heat, according to a new study from Redfin.

The most flood-prone parts of the country saw 384,000 more people move in than out in 2021 and 2022, more than double the net migration from the previous two-year period, according to Redfin.

Americans leaving cities like New York and San Francisco earlier in the pandemic frequently headed to Sun Belt locations that offered more affordable housing and lower taxes. States like Florida, Texas and Arizona saw huge inflows of new residents even as those locations face threats of extreme weather. 

“It’s human nature to focus on current benefits, like waterfront views or a low cost of living, over costs that could rack up in the long run, like property damage or a decrease in property value,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement. “It’s also human nature to discount risks that are tough to measure, like climate change.”

Lee County, Florida, which includes Fort Myers and Cape Coral and was devastated by Hurricane Ian in September, saw the largest net inflow of new residents out of the 306 high-flood-risk counties Redfin analyzed. The region added 66,000 people in the last two years, a 65% increase from the prior two years. 

Despite the risk of storms in the region, new developments have continued to sprout up, and home listings have bounced back. The impact of Hurricane Ian led to 900 fewer home listings in Fort Myers and Cape Coral in the two months after the storm, according to a separate Redfin analysis. In the six months that followed, there were 1,314 more new listings in the county than projected by Redfin.

“Builders in Cape Coral have not stopped, they’re just building like nothing happened,” local Redfin real estate agent Isabel Arias-Squires said in the release.

The report analyzed domestic migration data from the Census Bureau and used climate risk scores from First Street Foundation. It found that counties with the highest wildfire risk added 446,000 people in 2021 and 2022, a 51% increase in migration from the previous two years.

In Riverside County, California, nearly 600,000 homes — two-thirds of all homes in the area — face high wildfire risk, more than any county analyzed by Redfin. Nonetheless, the region saw a 36% increase in net migration over the last two years, adding more than 40,000 residents.

The counties with the highest heat risk also saw 629,000 more people move in than out in 2021 and 2022, a 17% increase from the previous period. 

Maricopa County, Arizona, which includes Phoenix, gained more residents than any other county in 2022 despite nearly all of the homes there facing high heat risk. The region saw 76,000 more people move in than out over the last two years. At least 18 Maricopa County residents have died from extreme heat in 2023, according to the county health department.

The influx of new residents to areas facing weather-related risks is likely to continue. More than half of homes built so far this decade face fire risk, and 45% face drought risk, according to Redfin. 

Even as Americans continue to flock to these regions, there is some understanding that the increasing risks of natural disasters could impact home values. 

Just under 50% of respondents to a Redfin survey of people who had moved in the past year or plan to move in the next year said they believed climate-related issues would impact home values in their area. Meanwhile, only around 5% of people surveyed cited climate change as a reason for their relocation. 

“The consequences of climate change haven’t fully sunk in for many Americans because oftentimes, homeowners and renters don’t foot the whole bill when disaster strikes,” Fairweather said, adding that insurers and government programs frequently subsidize the cost of rebuilding.