Report Shows Swing-State Voters Struggle To Afford An Apartment, But Help Could Be On The Way

With the nation's affordable housing crisis shaping up as a key election issue, a new Redfin report indicates that average swing-state renters earn 17% less than they need to comfortably afford the median rent in their respective states.

But relief could be at hand after Wednesday's interest rate cut, which is expected to spur new supply, and just-released Census Bureau data suggesting rents could fall, thanks to a surge in new multifamily starts.

The average renter in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina earns about $50,267 per year — $10,365 less than what's needed to afford rent, according to the Redfin report. That is down slightly from the 21% disparity in the real estate firm's study from the last presidential election cycle in 2020, but it is a sign Americans continue to struggle to pay for housing, it said.

“America’s swing state voters will decide the outcome of the next presidential election based on the candidates’ plans for tackling key issues including the housing affordability crisis,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement. “While the economy has been improving on paper, that’s not what it feels like for a lot of U.S. families. Many renters—especially young people—still feel the rent is too damn high.”

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have both called for increasing the supply of housing to bring down costs, but they have put forth radically different proposals to accomplish that. Harris plans to add 3 million units of housing in one term. Trump has said he would roll back protections for some federal land and has previously supported maintaining single-family zoning laws.

But aside from political solutions, market forces could be aligning to help out as well.

Multifamily housing completions jumped to a five-decade high last month, Bloomberg reported, citing census figures.

The outlet reported rent pressures could be eased by some 759,000 residential buildings with two or more units completed last month, the most since July 1974. The nearly 39% jump from a month earlier was led by nearly a doubling of monthly completions in the South, which accounted for 502,000 units.

The Federal Reserve's move to slash interest rates by 50 basis points Wednesday could also spur new construction and housing supply that could alleviate some renter pain.

“The rate cut is an important factor in stimulating new multifamily development and investment activity,” The Astor Cos. CEO Henry Torres said after the Fed move, though he cautioned that “if interest rates go down too much, it could stimulate a rise in construction costs that offsets any benefit from the drop in interest rates.”

The U.S. is undersupplied by 1.5 million to 2 million housing units, according to estimates from Moody’s and Freddie Mac.