Retailers Flash Warning Signs That Consumer Spending Might Be Waning

Some of the U.S.’s biggest retailers, including Nordstrom, Macy’s and Kohl’s, are seeing a decline in consumer spending, a warning sign that retail's run of strong performance could be weakening.

On recent earnings calls, retail executives said consumers are being slower to pay bills from store credit cards. During its earnings call this week, Kohl’s reported that its “other revenue” — which Reuters reports is primarily the department store’s credit business — declined by 2% in Q2.

The drop-off is largely from lower-income earners feeling the pressure on their budgets, analysts said.

While Nordstrom’s credit card revenues grew by 10% in the first half of this year, delinquencies are now higher than pre-pandemic levels and could mean higher credit losses for the remainder of the year, the company said during an earnings call.

Macy’s also reported credit card revenues during Q2 were interrupted by payment delinquencies that hit $120M during Q2. Although that figure was down $84M from Q1, analysts said the pattern in consumer spending is cause for concern.

Gap shuttered 40 company-owned retail locations during the first half of this year and opened 36 new stores, CoStar reported. Its financial standing has improved — it reported a $117M profit in Q2 this year, compared to a $49M loss in Q2 2022 — but sales dropped by 8% in the same period. It said it would be pausing new store openings while looking to shutter 350 locations by the end of the year.

“We will have to be prudent in our approach to planning through the rest of the year in light of what remains an uncertain macro economy and choppy consumer waters," Gap Inc. Chief Financial Officer Katrina O’Connell said during the company’s earnings call Thursday. 

The pullback in consumer spending is a warning sign of macroeconomic conditions that could arrive this fall, analysts said. Consumers are concerned about a potential economic downturn, while many are also tightening their belts ahead of the resumption of student loan repayments in October.

“Now that we’ve been dealing with inflation for as long as we have, I just think we’re getting to a point where savings are depleted,” Janine Stitcher, a retail analyst at the brokerage firm BTIG, told The New York Times. “When people are not paying their credit card bills, that suggests a really stretched consumer.”