6) Retail and e-commerce butt heads, yet boost industrial.
While there are pockets of retail activity, there are still many retailers struggling with e-commerce, says Jeff (snapped above with attendee, Herrick counsel Howard Peskoe). On the other hand, being located “smack in the middle” of the US’s largest population center means e-commerce and same-day delivery are driving industrial. (Let's be honest... folks from NY and NJ aren't exactly world-renowned for their patience.) Its 10.2% vacancy will drop into the single digits by the end of Q1; there’s 5M SF of velocity per quarter; and 60% of industrial space under development is spec, he reports.
On the retail side, it’s a buyer’s market, with empty big boxes being swept up by names like Savers, Burlington Coat Factory, and Big Lots, Jonathan says. The right mix of stores in the right area will do well and you can find cap rates lower than office. Jose says one well-leased, Shop Rite-anchored center in Bergen County commanded a sub-6%; grocery-anchored centers overall are still hot and the institutional investors have moved from just focusing on top grocers to the second- and third-best in the market. (So don’t fret, Pathmark.)
