Things Are Grim For Investors, But Not As Grim As 2007

The election’s days away, and the investment and equity markets are in an odd position.

Change can be clearly felt in the wind, but what direction it takes is a mystery. The panelists of SIOR’s 2016 Fall World Conference private equity and investment management panel are playing it safe, but were confident we’re not heading towards at 2007-style drop.

Onyx Equities CEO Jonathan Schultz (second from left, next to Real Capital Analytics SVP Jim Costello) said a calm before a storm like this often incentivizes firms—including Onyx—to “sell for safety” before the market enters unknown territory, tax-wise. 

USAA Real Estate Co CEO Len O'Donnell (center) said the potential 20% increase in capital gains tax can’t be handled by current deals, and wondered if the market needs to shift prices or restructure transactions to cope with the government’s increased cut.

1031 exchanges are also potentially on the chopping block. While Len believes that removing them could hurt small businesses just as much, if not more than “Wall Street fat cats,” he admitted they remove capital from the market that often isn’t reinvested. Brennan Investment Group CEO Michael Brennan (second from right) also pointed to their tax-deferring dangers.

Even beyond these unknowns, the panelists said the current market wasn’t doing them any favors. Working mainly in the reasonably priced suburbs, Jonathan says the difficulty of getting loans and the increasing regulation on banks have dried up buyer pools and made it harder than ever for a regional bank to survive. Hampshire Cos CEO James Hanson (far right) says his firm is being “defensive” with its investments. 

While he expects values to recede when interest rates inevitably rise, Len’s confident that it will not be at the same levels as 2007-08, reminding the crowd that the market remains “as healthy as it's been in years." Michael pointed to the market’s high absorption, high values, cheap debt, ubiquitous liquidity and eager private equity investors. 

“The market allows you to pull executions not even conceivable in the past,” he said. "You can buy an empty building and have it filled up in nine months rather than two years."

But the danger comes from the market’s high prices, making it impossible to buy low, sell high, handle any shift in interest rates, market anything “slightly off-center of the fairway" or keep NOIs at a reasonable level, Len said.