News
3 REASONS THIS DOWNTURN IS DIFFERENT
May 7, 2012
| Colliers NY tri-state prez Michael Cohen is back at the reins after a sabbatical that happened to coincide with the downturn. Now, as he leads his office through the economic recovery, he talks about why this recession has charted new territory. |
| 1) THE DOUPLE DIP HAPPENED |
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| Michael has worked with his organization for 30 years from family-owned firm through a partnership that led to that organization operating as Colliers International since 2010. He tells us every time a recession starts, including in the '80s and then the dot-com bubble burst, people talk about the double dip. This is the first time the naysayers were right, he says. Remember when leasing seemed to bounce back strong last spring? Michael's thought at the time: "I've seen this movie before. I know what happens next." Well, the economy threw in a surprise ending for this sequel. |
| 2) FINANCIAL SERVICES IS NO SAVIOR |
| Always our city's growth engine out of a trough, financial services is somewhere between flat and retrenching now, just as the economy could use a caped crusader. This time, there are no financial firms to take that kind of excess space off the market. At least financial services isn't spitting massive space back out yet. |
| 3) TALKIN' 'BOUT A GENERATION |
| Michael considers technology's emergence over industry a "generational change." The tech companies are the ones absorbing NYC office space nowadays, but he points out that "tech" is actually a misnomer. Rather, than just the web-based firms of the dot-com heyday, the sector encompasses all kinds of companies that happen to have developed web initiatives like advertising, media, network, and consumer product firms. One example: Havas Media's 225k SF lease in Hudson Square a month ago. |
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| David Kaplansky is the most recent of 25 brokers who have joined Colliers' NYC office in the past 18 months, coming over from JLL. Michael—who invests in plenty of theater productions (as you can tell from the posters lining his walls, including the little girl from Les Misphotobombing us) like Wicked and most recently Evita—says all that talent recruitment is starting to reap rewards as the business the new hires were working on when they joined begins to close. |
