News
CHANDAN AND WHITE
January 30, 2009
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| Although we've started to dread economic forecasts, we were eager to learn yesterday from Real Estate Economics chief economist Sam Chandan and Real Capital Analytics founder Bob White, who spoke to a joint Counselors of Real Estate/Appraisal Institute breakfast at Club 101 on Park Avenue. Sam, whose current outlooks are sobering, just returned from D.C. with good news: there's clear indication that the government is aware of the unique issues commercial real estate faces, thanks to industry lobbying. We're glad, because he expects the downturn to be worse than '01 to '03. |
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| Bob and Sam with Cushman & Wakefield's Brian Corcoran, moderator; Fieldstone Advisors' David Fields, CRE's New York metro chair; and Cushman's Matthew Mondanile, president of the Appraisal Institute's New York Metro chapter. Bob tells us that U.S. transactions are down 75% by value, and $100M+ mega-deals only account for 8% total. All property types are feeling the shock, and the rest of the world is in the same boat. Investors are staying in the U.S. with all the distressed opportunities; as of this week, there $87B worth of potentially troubled assets, $23B troubled, and $5.4B that are already lender-owned. Unlike the '80s and '90s, these are quality assets with good owners, he says. |
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| Appraisers and Planners' Ruth Agnese and James Levy (middle) with Leitner Group's Joel Leitner and Brown Harris Stevens' Sharon Locatell. A downside to the transactions decline: no sales data for appraisers to work with, which makes this an extremely challenging time, James tells us. On a happier note, his firm, which was founded by his father in 1933, just celebrated its 75th anniversary. |
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| TIAA-CREF's Terri Rasmussen, CRE's Martin Tessler, Grubb & Ellis' William Picoli, and Hugh Kelly Real Estate's Hugh Kelly. Even in turbulent times, our industry has a heart. Hugh is on the board of the Brooklyn Catholic Charities' Progress of Peoples Development, which provides housing for the low-income, homeless, and elderly; CRE is providing pro-bono consulting work for the charity. |
