News
LAST NIGHT'S NAIOP FORECAST
March 6, 2009
| Everything's changing so rapidly, if it's another day, it must be another forecast! So we were on hand last night at the Haworth showroom to hear Hugh Kelly of Hugh Kelly Real Estate Economics give his outlook on the market, hosted by NAIOP's NYC chapter. |
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| His take: the consensus says recovery will begin by 4Q09. The first half of the year looks ugly with minus 1.9% GDP, but we should see a 2.1% growth starting in 3Q09. Unemployment will peak somewhere in the 8-9% range by '10. Overall, this is a long, serious recession which impacts the entire U.S. Stocks will recover before the GDP, which will recover before jobs. Housing will recover earlier than commercial, which was late to join the party. Return of credit will be a process, not an event. |
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| Hugh with JLL's Jim Wenk and CAPS Interactive's Philip Hochstein. Even though housing seemingly brought us into the mess, it will bring us out, Hugh says. The recession was instigated by financial panic, but that stage is likely behind us. Business stabilization will occur later this year, setting a sequential expansion in construction, production, services, and finally, finance. Job loss will be awful in the first half of '09, but will come to a gradual end. |
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| Sterling Equities' Robert Watman and Sagar Dalal with JLL's Chi Osu. TMZ.com and other paparazzi have been waiting outside Sagar's door for days, but he waited to break the news to Bisnow: He's expecting his first child in August. We hope that he keeps the first pictures under $1M. |
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| Chicago Title's Brian McCarthy, Ellenoff Grossman's Joseph Nicotra, and JLL's Paul Formichelli. |
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| Milrose Consultants' John Pupons and Dan Bsharat with SESI Consulting Engineers' Roger Hendrickson. Roger is conducting civil, geo-tech, and environmental work for the Concord Resort casino-hotel (which includes a 5/8-mile horse racing track) in Monticello, NY. John and Dan take care of filing for projects with municipal offices and other agencies. They say government and education business is ramping up. |
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| NYU's Barry Hersh, with Asset Preservation's Pamela Michaels and Wiggin & Dana's Barry Trilling, is a full-time professor, imparting over three decades of industry experience to students. He's currently teaching a course on sustainability. |
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| IA Interior Architects' Chris Martorana, NAIOP developing leader Winnie Seung, and UnitedShortSale's Zachary Cummings. Zachary's been working on short sale and distressed property negotiation and processing on both the commercial and residential side. This keeps him fully occupied, but looks like he managed to sneak out of the office for the event. |
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| Studley's Edward Kang, AMREES' Robert Baron, and ING Clarion's Tim Zietara. Robert, who specializes in executive searches, says the job market's supply far outweighs demand right now. Perhaps Hugh's forecast gave him a glimmer of hope. |
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| Ackman-Ziff's Rick Lechtman, chapter president, with EP&T Global's Rudi Miklosvary and The Schonbraun McCann Group's James Helmus. |
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| Broad Street Advisors' Keith Broemmer and Robert Rizzi flank Prudential Real Estate Investors' Martin Holland. Everyone's working to get deals done, keep their heads above water, and assess the current debt situation, which they joke is giving them gray hair. Lucky for them, our camera doesn't pick up on follicular changes. |
