News
ON THE MEND
January 26, 2010
| Big thanks to three great friends—Arent Fox law firm, Reznick Capital Markets Group, and Partner Engineering and Sciences— for making possible the event we regale you about below. |
| It’s not as though the superstar panelists at our Bisnow Capital Markets Schmooze this morning on W. 44th didn’t acknowledge continuing troubles. But it was no less a voice of experience than Studley’s Woody Heller, long on the front lines of investment sales, who suggested our headline above to sum up their views. |
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| 300 of you came to the Bar Association ballroom probably expecting unrelenting bad news, but not only was the news better than expected, but even the coffee (according to our unscientific survey). |
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| Woody says it’s ironically not sellers who are finally capitulating, as the market’s been expecting, but buyers. In particular, he says,offshore buyers who think they missed the boat in London and don’t want to miss it in the US. He says money is plentiful and strong assets for sale are the true commodity in short supply. In other good news he reported: Rental rates are rising because sublet space is being taken off the market. |
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| Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman co-founder Arthur Sonnenblick. Arthur lamented that “debt got us into this problem and debt will get us out of this” but thinks there will be hundreds of banks that suffer more big losses before it’s over. But he also thinks “we’ll be on the other side of the problem in 3 to 5 years.” In the meantime, he says, “buyers are all over the place and if you’ve got a strong property it can sell.” “So I’m told,” said Woody to laughter. |
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| As if to make Arthur’s point, Shorenstein eastern US capital transactions chief Mark Portner, right (here with Transwestern Vice Chair Nathan Isakoff) says it has put 1111 Pennsylvania on the market in DC because it’s exactly such a strong property (with Morgan Lewis as anchor tenant). |
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| “Father of the CMBS Market” Ethan Penner told the crowd the market will get re-priced on a rolling basis, maybe the lion’s share in 2012 to 2014. He sees the opportunity today as the imbalance between capital needed to refinance and capital organized to do that. When it gets organized, those investors will do very well, he says, so he’s been creating funds. |
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| Big kudos to Rob Sternthal of Reznick Group for moderating Ethan’s remarks. And equal thanks to Arent Fox heavyweight David Dubrow for moderating the Heller/Portner/Sonnenblick panel. |
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| Our panelists deserved to be way up on top because they were a parade of legends. In keeping with our effort to provide you info you might not get elsewhere, we provide this factoid about Ethan: He performed in a supporting role for the independent film Jack and Jill vs. The World, starring Freddie Prinze Jr. |
