News
PREDICTIONS; DEALS
November 12, 2008
| This year's investment sales market was tough, and next year will be tougher. Sure, we've heard the prediction before, but unfortunately yesterday it came from authoritative specialist Bill Collins, the Cassidy & Pinkard Colliers broker who's done some of the largest deals in Washington. He was in Manhattan at ABR'sEast 52nd Street office yesterday morning to join other C&P andColliers ABR execs in predictions. |
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| Bill, right, with ABR chair Mark Boisi. If you've been sleeping, ABR, C&P, Colliers Turley Martin Tucker, and Colliers Pinkard merged a few months ago to create one of the largest independently owned brokerage houses in the East, partly leveraging C&P's capital markets strength. Bill notes that as of four week ago, 75% of YTD transactions were cash buyers, with the remaining involved inassumptions and new debt deals. Price adjustments are aroundJanuary 2007's level, down from the mid-2007 high-water market.Investors who jump into the market now will be winners. (When they're not golfing: Mark just returned from Augusta National, and Bill's headed to Palm Springs.) |
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| ABR's Craig Evans, Mark Boisi, C&P's David Webb, ABR's Richard Bernstein, ABR's Robert Sammons, Bill Collins, and C&P's Kevin Thorpe. Next year, the market needs new debt vehicles to fill theCMBS void, they say. On the office side, sales activity will slow, cap rates will rise, and prices with fall further, with trophies performing the best. Anticipate more distressed assets (the firm is 30 days into its new distressed asset service group and has 6M SF of officeand industrial assets). David says that there's a misperception thatno one's lending in the current environment, but the best of the best are getting things done, and new opportunistic funds are appearing. Expect at least A-level CMBS to return by 2010 or 2011. |
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| We tried getting D.C. researcher Kevin to arm-wrestle NY researcher Robert, but they politely declined. Why? They knew Kevin wouldwin, because D.C. is stronger than Manhattan. Kevin contends that the nation's capital has avoided three of four past recessions, withjob growth continuing (31k new jobs this year, 29k in 2009—thank the federal government, the TARP bailout, and a new administration). New York lost 4,700 private sector jobs in September, and over 11k securities jobs YTD. Both markets are seeing their share of softening, but New York's vacancy has increased by 29% and sublet space by 23%. |
