News
SURVIVORS!
November 19, 2009
| Happy days are here again. Assuming "here" is at least 2011.Yesterday, we peered into Grubb & Ellis' crystal ball at the firm’s annual forecast event (this year, webcast!) |
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| Corporate finance leader Jeffrey Shell, cap markets prez Glen Esnard, and chief economist Bob Bach. We’re light years ahead of ’08, Bob says, with a stabilized financial market, but there’s a ways to go before equilibrium. Expect employment to bottom out in the second half of ’10, sustained creation in ’11, and recuperation by ’14. Bounce-back order: apartments, industrial, retail, and office. Expect Q4 transaction velocity to exceed the three prior quarters and more predictable pricing, Glen says—we’ve hit the fifth stage of grief,acceptance, and the bottom will follow. Corporations are taking both defensive and offensive strategies, Jeffrey adds, with many opportunities and long-term leases back. |
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| Our regional authorities: NY prez David Arena, Chicago EVP Shawn Mobley, and Texas EVP Moody Younger (who all read theirhometown Bisnow). In NYC, vacancies and availability will increase, then level; sublease space and net effective rent will level, then decrease. (We think they make these brain-twisters just to mess with us.) Class A asking rent and sublease rents will decline; and leasing velocity and office investment volume will go up. Next year will be a bellwether, David says—it’s the best market in 25 years for tenants and buyers (we’re seeing a flight to quality). The event also included a Golden State forecast by LA EVP Chuck Hunt. |
