News
THIS MORNING: ALL QUESTIONS ANSWERED
September 17, 2009
| “Where's the bottom?” brought 250 of you to the NYC Bar Association early this morning to hear top experts at Bisnow's "State of the Market." And the answer to that burning question . . . |
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| Wien & Malkin president Tony Malkin and REBNY president Steven Spinola kicked off with a Q&A. Tony says we've seen a tremendous turnaround in leasing, an increase in tours, and a decline in proposal-to-lease times, but differentiations are still in the market. His predictions: enough activity in the pipeline gives confidence in pickup continuation, at least until the end of '09. There will be a rollback in public financing for real estate, although we'll see a flurry of capital raised through year's end. There aren't many people selling, but we should see a change by 1Q10, and people will view NYC as an inexpensive world capital to locate their businesses over the next six to twelve months. |
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| Our panel: FirstService Williams' Bob Freedman, JLL's Peter Riguardi, and CBRE's Bob Alexander, moderated by sponsor Orrick's Marc Shapiro. Peter notes that we've seen value reductions as much as 50%, but another 5 to 10% movement should bring us our bottom; however, Downtown still has a ways to go. There's been a drop in financial and legal leasing activity, Bob A. adds, but numbers continue to trend positively; even vacancies are dropping from July's 15.2%. Absorption will continue its diminution until '11, when we hopefully see positive numbers again. When is the recovery? Bob F. says we likely won't see a spike until '11-'12, and anyone who invokes the “missing the market” mentality is full of (we'll let you fill in the expletive). |
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| Signature Bank's Alan Roth and George Klett, here with W&H Properties' Fred Posniak, tell us Signature's involved in three financing deals with Malkin properties. Fred reports that W&H is about to sign a very significant deal at 1333 Broadway, which will bring the building over 95% occupancy, and has 700k SF of negotiations out on its Manhattan portfolio. Many of them jive with the trend of tenants looking for a stable landlord, he says. |
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| Envirochrome's Joseph Intonato, TSC Design's Steve Bitterman, and Prudential Douglas Elliman's Mandy Cantor. Interior designer Steve tells us that its pre-built program at 515 Madison is doing well, as suites are being snapped up. If you're interested in hearing more,AREW will be holding a breakfast seminar at the building on the 23rd, where Steve, Newmark Knight Frank’s Eric Gural, and Haworth’s Robert Garrity will discuss 515’s greening. (Info) |
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| Keystone Realty Capital’s Steven Storrs, Prudential Douglas Elliman’s Elaine Tross, and Israel Berger & Associates’ Tom Jakab. Elaine tells us she sees a pickup in meetings between buyers and sellers, while Tom has been making the rounds to do presentations on Local Law 11, the “hot and heavy” issue on five-year façade inspections. |
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| Knightsbridge Properties’ David Firestone, TSC Design’s Ellen Hendrickx, B.R. Fries and Associates’ Diane Cramer, Art Plus’ Tina Mancuso, and Thinkspace’s Robert Rosenberg. Ellen’s currently working on interior design for a school and a high-profile liquor company, while Tina has been busy on the corporate art side, providing everything from posters to fine art for companies. |
