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WHAT THE HECK TO EXPECT IN 2012
January 4, 2012
| In response to that headline, it's the status quo. The most frequent word we heard when asking the experts what will happen this year was "continue." That means things will still be hard, but not as difficult as in '08 and '09. Anyone got a juicer? We're suddenly craving some lemonade. |
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| Yesterday, Ackman-Ziff prez Simon Ziff told us CMBS is the most important facet of CRE financing and valuation, and it will come back this year. Insurance companies and, to an extent, banks are financing the top 1% of properties—the country's trophies. (No word on whether this has upset the other 99% of properties.) That translates to the top 10% or so in steamy markets like NY and DC. CMBS, which looks for cash-flowing assets, takes on the next 20% to 30%. And once that happens, values will stabilize or perhaps even tick up a bit. When we asked Simon what scares him, he did his best Scarlett O'Hara and said, "I don't want to think about that today." Hmm, maybe we'll ask him tomorrow. |
