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Betting on a forecast "silver tsunami" of baby boomers seeking varying levels of at-home healthcare after retiring, developers in the five years leading up to the pandemic poured billions into new assisted living centers and skilled-care facilities.
But now, with that population hesitating to take the step into senior housing, many of these bets are in questions as the sector deals with labor shortage, depressed demand and $2B in encroaching loan maturities.
“Some developers and investors made questionable decisions on operators who couldn't execute marketing plans to lease up buildings to stabilization figures, especially in the face of the pandemic, but also such more persistent factors as high employee turnover,” Partner Valuation Advisors National Practice Leader for Seniors Housing Brian Chandler said.
Demographics still point to a growing elderly population, but the road ahead for senior housing isn't as smooth as developers in the sector anticipated in the late 2010s.“During the next 24 months, we'll most likely see more distressed acquisitions in the marketplace, as there will be undercapitalized…
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