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May 12, 2020

What The Sentiment Of 2008 Can Teach Us About The 2020 Crisis
[Webinar] Government Response And Self-Preservation: How Far Can Government Policy Go To Save Our Sector? 14 May

For a long time, commercial real estate didn’t believe it had a problem.

In autumn 2007, well after the phrase "credit crunch" had become common parlance, Tishman Speyer agreed to pay £22B for apartment REIT Archstone-Smith. On 15 September 2008, the day Lehman Brothers went bust, UK and Irish investors Glenn Maud and Derek Quinlan paid €2.1B for Santander’s HQ in Madrid. Even more amazingly, a consortium of blue-chip banks lent them enough money to do the deal with just €25M of equity. 

But Lehman changed everything. Pretty quickly, denial and optimism turned to despair.

What The Sentiment Of 2008 Can Teach Us About The 2020 Crisis

“During that time, I slept like a baby,” Allen Morris Co. CEO Allen Morris said. “I would sleep for an hour, and I’d get up and cry for an hour. Then I’d sleep for an hour, cry for another hour.”“I didn’t see the signs coming in 2007,” Atlanta development firm…

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Silver Linings Playbook: Here's How Recessions Make Real Estate Better
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Recessions change behaviour. And they change real estate markets radically.

We're all going to take a tumble, thanks to pandemic-inspired lockdown. Faced with a global recession of unprecedented severity – UK GDP shrinking by 14% this year, the eurozone's by 7.4%, and the U.S. by somewhere between the two — only a fool would ignore the lessons of history.

The current crisis and ensuing downturn will be painful. The fact that this recession has been born of a public health crisis gives it an extra, tragic edge. 

But what we have seen from previous crises is that good things come out of recessions too. After each of the last three or four major real estate crashes, the sector has evolved, and bad practices been rooted out. Things change for the better, as well as for the worse. From debt levels to development, from politics to who has the capital to invest.

Bisnow asked some of the real estate industry's most senior and seasoned figures to draw on their experience of recessions, slumps and bumps in the road since the 1970s. Their testimony reveals reasons for hope about how things might change following this recession. And reasons to be very…

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These Are The Deals That Told Us The Last Crisis Was Receding
These Are The Deals That Told Us The Last Crisis Was Receding  

In every downturn there are deals that turn out to be symbolic for marking the first green shoots of recovery. They might not have been evident at the time, but that is the benefit of hindsight.  These are the deals which, after the Great Recession started to ebb, showed the market was moving…

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