The logic is impeccable: Distress ought to be hurtling toward commercial real estate like an angry summer storm. Squeezed between the suddenly escalating costs of refinancing, and their suddenly falling portfolio valuations, plenty of individual buildings and many landlords, must be heading for trouble. A tidal was of distressed property loans ought to be about to crash. And yet the storm has not come, and distress is relatively scarce. But the advisers to lenders from the restructuring and insolvency worlds, those people who try to avoid financial cataclysm when loans become distressed, and take over when it can't be avoided, have a message. Lenders are beginning to deal with problems. The storm is about to hit.
“Every lender you speak to say yes, we expect stress in the market, but our books are clean. The trouble is I remember this being said in 2008-2010 right up until the point when it was clear they weren't,” said Fraser Greenshields, EY partner and corporate… Read the full story here. |