It wasn’t supposed to be this way. 

Surely, by now, interest rates would have already begun to drop, giving desperate commercial real estate owners a lifeline — and a reason to be optimistic in a year billed as “survive till ’25.” 

Following this week’s dreary Consumer Price Index Report, Bisnow reached out to real estate players and economists around the U.S. and the consensus was dark: expectations have shifted from multiple cuts this year to perhaps only a few later in the year. 

Some even think another rate hike could be on the horizon. That means more pain for the industry — halted projects, selling assets at big losses and handing the keys to their lenders. 

"There's no rest for the weary," LHMeyer CEO Derek Tang, an economist who focuses on Fed policy, wrote in an email to Bisnow. 

"CRE was initially hoping for a quick easing cycle, which would buy investors time to regroup and restructure and hopefully face lower rates once loans roll over or investors consider selling. Instead, high inflation means the Fed will keep interest rates higher than otherwise, depressing valuations now and reducing hope that there is quick relief."

— Mark F. Bonner, Bisnow Editor-in-Chief

Connect with me on X at @markfbonner and on LinkedIn