We have a scary new milestone this morning.

Buyers of the safest tranche of a CMBS loan were wiped out this month — the first time since the Global Financial Crisis that a top-rated bond backed by CRE took a loss.

When the loan for 1740 Broadway in Midtown Manhattan sold this month at a steep discount, all five lower tranches of creditors took total losses and investors in the AAA slice got less than three-quarters of their original investment back.

Yellowstone Real Estate paid less than $200M for the loan, well below the $605M Blackstone bought the office tower for in 2014. Yellowstone is considering converting the property to residential.

Analysts told Bloomberg the note sale indicates office is reaching new levels of distress. There are safeguards to ensure AAA holders recoup their full investment, but loans are selling at such a deep discount that more losses like this are surely coming down the pike.

“Now that we’ve seen the first commercial mortgage-backed securities get hit, other AAA bonds are bound to see losses,” Barclays CMBS strategist Lea Overby told Bloomberg. “These losses may be a sign that the commercial real estate market is starting to hit rock bottom.”

— Jay Rickey, Mark F. Bonner, Kayla Carmicheal and Catie Dixon

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On Our Radar

  • Weekly new jobless claims released this morning fell 8,000 to 215,000, though continuing claims rose by the exact same amount. Economists say it’s a positive sign the labor market remains robust, but that’s bad news for those hoping for lower interest rates soon.

  • Further indications inflation remains elevated: S&P's composite purchasing managers index for May rose to 54.4, the highest since 2022, as manufacturing output and service provider activity spiked and prices paid by and charged by these companies rose. 

  • But wait! Chicago Fed's regional activity report decreased to -0.23 for April, showing economic activity and inflationary pressures are down. All four categories it measures slowed. Still to come at 11 a.m. ET today is data from the Kansas City Fed.

  • This could be the worst hurricane season in decades. That’s what NOAA is warning this morning as it forecasts up to 25 tropical storms, 13 hurricanes and up to seven “major” hurricanes could threaten the U.S. mainland this year. The property insurance industry is already in “crisis mode.”

  • Ross Dress For Less is reporting its earnings at 4 p.m. ET. Visits to the discount retailer were up 1.1% year-over-year in Q1, according to Placer.ai. The retailer opened 18 new locations across 11 states earlier this year as part of its 90-store goal for 2024.

  • New home sales data for April came in this morning at 634,000 — 4.7% lower than March and 7% lower than last April. Though the numbers have fallen, they are in the "normal" pre-pandemic range of 600,000-700,000 sales a month.

  • May 23 is National Ethan Day. Bisnow Deputy Managing Editor Ethan Rothstein is celebrating his holiday by watching Mission Impossible movies to enjoy the coolest Ethan in film history kicking some butt. All you other Ethans out there, tell us what you’re up to: firstdraft@bisnow.com.  

 

This Morning’s News

DOJ To Challenge Live Nation's Dominance (WSJ and BNN Bloomberg): The Justice Department has sued Live Nation to break up its hold over the concert and ticketing industry. The company owns or operates 370 venues and festival sites around the world, and its ticketing system, Ticketmaster, has exclusive contracts with most high-profile stadiums and arenas. Get into the fine lines of the lawsuit and background about the alleged monopoly.


Regional Banks Making Moves To Reduce Risk From CRE Loans (Bisnow): D.C.-area banks are stepping back from CRE lending and into direct loans to businesses. Regulators want banks’ CRE to risk-based capital ratio to be below 300%, but one-third of banks are above it. Sandy Spring Bank was at 348% at the end of the year, EagleBank was at 350% and Capital Bank was at 304% but is acquiring a small bank that will bump its ratio down to 285%. Read about the strategies banks are taking to reduce their CRE exposure.


Looming Patent Cliff Could Boost Lab Real Estate (Bisnow): A wave of blockbuster drugs are losing their patent protection in upcoming years, opening up the market for generic alternatives. M&A activity is expected to follow, which could be good news for CRE. See what happens when life sciences dive off the patent cliff


Monty Bennett's Ongoing Battle With Activists (Dallas Morning News): Amid a contentious proxy battle with activist investors, Monty Bennett spoke out against what he describes as disruptive tactics that are harming the company's stability and shareholder value. Dive into the details about the disputes.


Oakland Sells Athletics' Stadium (BNN Bloomberg, ABC News and CoStar): Oakland has finalized the sale of the Athletics' stadium to a development group for $105M as the MLB team prepares for its move to Las Vegas. This sale opens the door for potential mixed-use redevelopment of the sports venue. Here's more about the deal, along with how Oakland's using the proceeds and the mixed-use redevelopment wave.


Today’s Deep Dive: Hamptons Businesses Abandon Year-Round Dreams

 
 
Wikimedia Commons/CaptJayRuffins
 
   
 

The pandemic was supposed to change everything. 

People untethered from their desks and seeking more space and fresh air moved to ritzy beach towns across the Hamptons in droves in 2020 and 2021. They bought palatial homes and signed their children up for local schools — they intended to stay permanently.

But that hasn’t happened.

Retail companies that signed long-term leases, banking on a year-round deep-pocketed clientele, have largely been disappointed. Between a slowdown in business and housing costs that are prohibitive for the average retail worker, these shops are often looking at going back to their seasonal hours or are steering away from places like the Hamptons altogether.

"The return to office — or at least having two, three days return to office — has impeded the full transition to it being a year-round destination," StayMarquis co-founder Bryan Fedner told Bisnow New York Reporter Sasha Jones. 

Read the full story here.


Prologis Executive Shifts (Bloomberg Law and Prologis): Prologis named successors for its chief legal officer and chief human resources officer roles. Retiring chief legal officer and general counsel Edward Nekritz is among the highest-paid law department executives at publicly traded U.S. companies. Learn the details of the switch and Nekritz's successor.


The Labour Party’s Housing Policy, Explained, As UK Election Nears (Bisnow): The UK will hold a general election on July 4, and housing is expected to play a major role. The Labour Party is expected to gain power, perhaps in part because of its New Towns policy to generate more housing. Learn about Labour’s platform. 


ICSC Las Vegas Event Concludes (CO): The ICSC Las Vegas event wraps up with attendees expressing concerns over having too many deals and not enough space to accommodate them. Read more about the lack of elbow room.


CRE Sentiment Rising (NAIOP): Sentiment and optimism in the commercial real estate sector are on the rise. “This marks a turnaround in sentiment for most CRE fundamentals, which was negative for almost every Index component in September.” Are things changing for the better?


CMBS Deals Surge (CoStar): There are up to 17 new commercial mortgage-backed securities deals in the pipeline, almost entirely single-asset, single-borrower. Check out the new CMBS deals in motion.


REITs Boost Share Repurchase (S&P Global): U.S. REITs repurchased $853M of shares in the first quarter of 2024, a 78% year-over-year increase that indicates stronger balance sheets and possibly a more optimistic outlook on their valuation. Discover more about REITs' Q1 performance.


The Struggles Of Underwater Landlords, Tenants (The American Prospect): Millions of tenants are facing challenges tied to being trapped in a deteriorating cycle with underwater landlords who are unable to maintain their properties adequately due to financial constraints. Dive into the underwater challenges.


Multifamily Investment Hits Four-Year Low (CoStar): Total multifamily investment in Q1 was the smallest quarterly total since the onset of the pandemic in Q2 2020. Read about the depressed market.


 
   
 
Wikimedia Commons/BalticServers
 
   
 

Power Utilities Want Data Centers To Foot The Bill For Billions In Grid Upgrades (Bisnow): Two utility companies this month proposed new electricity supply contract terms specifically for data centers. The plans, the first of their kind, would make data center operators foot more of the bill for infrastructure and plants to increase power supply. Power up on the details.


QSR Market Expected To Surge (The Trend Report): The quick-service restaurant industry is projected to grow by 163% over the next five years, but growing may be difficult in the face of labor shortages and difficulties acquiring financing. Read the full report here and see why restaurants face growth challenges.


Stonebridge M&A Expands Hospitality Portfolio (Lodging Magazine): Stonebridge Cos. has acquired Real Hospitality Group, bringing its hospitality portfolio to 24,000 rooms across 20 states. Read about the merger.


Decline In Single-Family Rental Prices (CoreLogic): For the first time in 14 years, the prices for attached single-family rentals have posted an annual decrease. Only six of 20 metros tracked posted rents below the national average. Coastal markets outperformed the rest of the country. Get into the market dynamics and regional breakdown.


Macerich's Revamp (Seeking Alpha): Macerich has unveiled a three-part strategy aimed at simplifying its business structure, enhancing its balance sheet and reducing its leverage. This "Path Forward" plan focuses on operational improvements and financial restructuring to position the company for future growth, and it expects to sell properties or turn them back over to lenders to reduce its debt load. Delve into the plan.


Homeownership vs. Rental Costs Diverge (Newmark): The gap between the costs of homeownership and apartment rentals in the U.S. has widened by 18.4% year-over-year. Housing affordability is at a 20-plus year low. Read more here.


Will Trump 2.0 Affect The Fed? (NYT): A potential second presidency for Donald Trump could lead to significant changes at the Federal Reserve, with possible shifts in policy approaches and leadership at the central bank. See what a Trump presidency could mean.

***

The First Draft is produced by Director of Newsletters Jay Rickey, Managing Editor Catie Dixon, Editor-in-Chief Mark F. Bonner and Deputy Newsletter Editor Kayla Carmicheal, with an assist from ChatGPT. We’d love your feedback! Email us at firstdraft@bisnow.com

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