It’s Election Day … duh. 

We all know it, so what more can be said? Did that millionth robotext or robocall turn the tide for you today? Are you standing in an endless line right now to cast your ballot, or did you mail it in earlier? Are you joyful? Are you nervous? Optimistic or downtrodden?

Like the rest of America right now, CRE is feeling all the feels.

As Bisnow discovered last week in interviews with a cluster of CRE pros across the U.S., you’re probably “burned out” and “tired” — and many of us can sympathize with this domestic dismay from one executive we spoke to: “My household is split, and you don’t discuss it at the dinner table.”

The whole thing has been exhausting, but at this point, “you know what you're buying” when it comes to the choice between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. 

But if you’re ravenous for more election scope, stop by our Election 2024 landing page for all of Bisnow’s CRE-fueled national and local election analysis.

If you’re sick of reading forecasts and want a distraction as the world waits for the votes to be tabulated, we still got you. 

Here’s what else is happening in the world of real estate. 

— Kayla Carmicheal, Catie Dixon, Mark F. Bonner and Jay Rickey

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On Our Radar

• U.S. multifamily saw its first vacancy decline in more than two years. That comes as renter demand surpasses record new supply. The vacancy rate dropped 0.2% to 5.3%, with expectations to reach its long-term average of 5% soon, according to CBRE. Positive net absorption hit 153,300 units, one of the strongest third quarters since 1985. Average monthly rents rose 0.3% year-over-year to $2,203, and further rent growth is anticipated as construction slows. Rent growth was strongest in the Midwest (2.7%), while New York and Washington, D.C., led in net absorption.

• Buzzkill? Rare bees sting Meta's grand plans for a nuclear data center. Meta’s plans to construct a nuclear-powered AI data center in the U.S. were thwarted partly due to the discovery of a rare bee species on an unknown site. Amazon can empathize: Federal regulators last week rejected a power agreement that would underpin an Amazon Web Services data center campus. All the big tech companies are trying out this nuclear thing — Microsoft is reviving the Three Mile Island plant, and Google is ordering modular reactors from Kairos Power. Mark Zuckerberg has voiced frustration over limited U.S. nuclear options as Meta explores alternative carbon-free energy solutions. 

• OK, we can’t help it: America’s largest companies are increasingly discussing the election. Between mid-September and October, 116 of 324 earnings calls Axios tracked mentioned the election — up from 102 in 2020 and 67 in 2016. While only nine S&P 500 companies named candidates directly, trade and tariffs emerged as key topics. 

• Earnings today: Newmark, Vornado, AvalonBay, Ryman Hospitality, Colliers, Howard Hughes, Realty Income and Simon Property.

• Take a bite out of The Slice: Want to get the deets on NYC’s massive rezoning plan and peek into the brain (and notebook) of Bisnow New York Senior Reporter Sasha Jones? Sign up for your slice of NYC news and “hot goss” and check out yesterday’s edition. 

• It’s Guy Fawkes Day … “Remember, remember, the fifth of November”? Somehow, we don’t think that will be a problem this year.

This Morning’s News

LEGAL — Fannie Mae Admits Financial Losses (Bisnow): The mortgage giant has acknowledged for the first time that it’s looking into wrongdoing by mortgage brokers. Financial losses from mortgage fraud played a part in Fannie Mae's Q3 earnings report, though it didn’t say just how much it lost. How did the rest of Fannie Mae's earnings report play out?

HOUSING — Renter Growth Outpaces Homeownership Threefold (Redfin): Renter households in the U.S. grew three times faster than homeowner households in Q3, a trend driven by high mortgage rates and limited housing inventory. With more people renting, demand for multifamily units continues to gain steam. Here are the metros with the highest shares of renter households.

Today’s Deep Dive: The CMBS Market Is Warming Back Up To Office Debt

No need to pinch yourself: This isn’t a dream. 

Liquidity is coming back to the office market, and at attractive rates that could get sales moving.

There was $74B of CMBS debt issued in the first nine months of the year, up from $40B in the same period of 2023, according to an S&P Global Ratings report. The ratings agency projects $90B of issuances by the end of the year, raising its earlier projection by $10B.

“An important change in the environment has been the increasing availability of debt financing at scale for office assets in the CMBS market with relatively attractive pricing,” BXP CEO Owen Thomas said on a call with analysts last week.

CMBS lending in the first half of the year almost tripled the historically low rate from the same period in 2023. Trepp projected that $100B of CMBS loans could be underwritten this year despite uncertainty from the election.

“A new market phenomenon, which is very constructive ... is the opening of the CMBS market for the office sector,” Thomas said. “I think that will help buyers create liquidity to buy things.”

Read the full story here.

BROKERAGE — Cushman & Wakefield Prepares For Turnaround (Bisnow): C&W wants to capitalize on the pent-up demand created by high interest rates. The plan? Pay down debt and sell off a noncore business line. C&W’s revenue rose 3% YOY to $2.3B in Q3, bolstered by a 13% YOY spike in leasing revenue. Get more details about the firm's Q3 performance and future.

BROKERAGE — Colliers’ Q3 Revenue Climbs To $1.2B (Colliers): Colliers International’s Q3 revenue increased 11% year-over-year. The commercial real estate giant attributes its growth to acquisitions and robust international demand. Access the brokerage's earnings report.

BROKERAGE — Newmark Grows Q3 Revenue 11% (Newmark): Newmark’s Q3 revenue reached $686M, an 11% boost from the same period last year. Strong leasing and capital markets performance contributed to the increase. Its capital markets revenue grew by 18.5%.

RETAIL — Home Depot Co-Founder Dies (CNN): Bernie Marcus, the co-founder of Home Depot and a prominent philanthropist, has died at age 95. Learn more about Marcus' career.

RETAIL — Franchise Group Files For Bankruptcy (Bisnow): The owner of The Vitamin Shoppe, Pet Supplies Plus and Buddy’s Home Furnishings filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The parent company, which operates more than 3,000 stores across brands, entered a restructuring support agreement that would allow its lenders to effectively take control of the company. Read more about the restructuring agreement for the franchises.

HOTELS — Election To Weigh On Marriott Bookings More Than Usual (Bloomberg): Marriott is bracing for a 3% dip in U.S. and Canada bookings this November due to election-related disruptions, double what’s typically seen. How were Marriott's shares impacted by its earnings call?

HOTELS — Choice Hotels Ups Guidance On Record Revenue (Seeking Alpha): Choice Hotels reported record Q3 revenue of $428M and raised its full-year forecast even though RevPAR for midscale, extended stay and economy hotels all declined YOY. The strong performance is attributed to expansion across key markets and an increased unit count. Get the numbers behind Choice Hotels' third-quarter performance.

IOS — Peakstone Nabs $490M Outdoor Storage Portfolio (Alterra IOS): Peakstone Realty Trust has acquired a 51-property industrial outdoor storage portfolio for $490M. The seller is a JV of Alterra IOS and institutional investors advised by J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The portfolio accounted for 20% of Alterra's AUM.

INDUSTRIAL — Chinese Logistics Operators Ramping Up U.S. Presence (Bisnow): Chinese retailers are snapping up U.S. industrial leases as Americans are buying more products from discount Chinese retailers. How does this affect tariffs, despite who wins the election?

LEGAL — Sureste Property Group Pays $75K Settlement (EEOC): Sureste Property Group settled a lawsuit with the EEOC for $75K. The lawsuit claimed the company terminated an employee because he was Black. Read more about the suit.

FINANCE — Banks Gear Up For CRE Lending Comeback (CO): After a conservative lending phase, banks expect to accelerate commercial real estate lending.. Banks still hold nearly 51% of CRE loans despite backing away from the sector for the last two years. See where the biggest banks stand and where they could go.

RETAIL — Dollar Tree CEO Steps Down (Seeking Alpha): Dollar Tree CEO Rick Dreiling has resigned, citing health concerns. Chief Operating Officer Michael Creedon Jr. will act as interim CEO while Dollar Tree conducts its executive search. Read more here.

LAND — White House Further Scrutinizes Transactions Near Military Sites (Bisnow): The Treasury Department has expanded the federal government’s ability to block CRE transactions near certain military bases. The new rules allow the program to review transactions at  over 60 bases in 30 states to combat fears about Chinese espionage. Learn more about the program's evolution.

FINANCE — $315M Refinancing Secured For Self-Storage Portfolio (Newmark): A $315M refinancing deal has been arranged for a 3.1M SF self-storage portfolio totaling more than 21,300 units. Branded as Storage King USA, the portfolio is in 24 different markets across 11 states. Get the details about the properties.

RETAIL — Nouria Expands Footprint With M&A (CoStar): Enmarket operates 132 locations in three Southeast states. Nouria, based in Massachusetts, operates 170 stores and 61 car washes in the northeast. The deal includes 26 Enmarket car washes.

DATA CENTERS — What’s Next For Energy’s High-Tech Ambitions? (WSJ): Federal regulators rejected Amazon's nuclear data center deal, but it doesn't prevent nuclear power plants from selling power to data centers. Microsoft’s deal with Constellation Energy at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, for example, will deliver power to the grid. Microsoft will get to offset the power it will draw from the grid for its data centers with clean nuclear energy. Read more here.

OFFICE — Q3 Property Sales Up 13% YOY (GlobeSt): Q3 office building sales were steady year-over-year and increased over Q2, the first quarterly back-to-back gains in volume since 2022. Multifamily sales also fared well last quarter.

FINANCE — Fortress Net Lease REIT Pays $207M For Assets (CoStar): Fortress Net Lease paid about $117 per SF for a three-building, 1.7M SF portfolio that it leased back to Syngenta. Get more details about the purchase.

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The First Draft is produced by Director of Newsletters Jay Rickey, Managing Editor Catie Dixon, Editor-in-Chief Mark F. Bonner and Deputy Newsletter Editor Kayla Carmicheal, with an assist from AI. We’d love your feedback! Email us at firstdraft@bisnow.com.