Few things are certain in this world, but this is probably one of them:

“You don't have to worry about federal rent control anymore.” 

That’s the take from TruAmerica Multifamily CEO Bob Hart, one of the multifamily experts who spoke to Bisnow about what a second Donald Trump presidency will mean for housing.

Deregulation has been Trump’s primary talking point, but what form that takes exactly is still to be seen. Rules around increasing sustainability and limited emissions are probably out at the federal level, and experts expect an extension and/or expansion of the Opportunity Zone program, which has spurred housing development. A rethink of the Department of Housing and Urban Development could be on the table.

But Trump will likely need to deviate from the playbook of his first term.

“The debt and deficit realities are different,” Mortgage Bankers Association Senior Vice President for Legislative and Political Affairs Bill Killmer said. 

“The interest rate environment is different. The way the capital markets are reacting to the potential for a growing debt load and deficit is different … I think there’s a lot at stake in this debate for multifamily.” 

— Kayla Carmicheal, Mark F. Bonner, Catie Dixon and Jay Rickey

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On Our Radar

• CRE’s largest firms are still overwhelmingly led by white men. Bisnow's fifth annual DEI Data Series shows nominal diversity gains in CRE leadership amid 2024's market slowdown. C-suites at the top 100 CRE firms remain predominantly white, 85%, and male, 70%. In 2024, women represented 27.2% of C-suite roles and 31.8% of board seats, while people of color made up only 14.5% of C-suites and 20.6% of boards. Among the sectors Bisnow analyzed, lenders were the most diverse, with 28.6% women and 21.4% people of color in C-suites, and boards comprised 35.5% women and 24.3% people of color. In contrast, brokerages had the lowest representation of people of color in C-suites at just 11.9% and the highest share of women at 32.2%.

• Crypto is going bananas. When will CRE get in on the action? Back in February, Bisnow reported that nearly a dozen companies — including BlackRock and Fidelity — were seeking to launch ethereum-focused ETFs, sparking renewed interest in crypto from CRE. Ethereum, favored for its smart contract capabilities, is increasingly seen as a tool to streamline property transactions, allowing for faster, more transparent and automated processes. Industry leaders predict blockchain technology, especially through ethereum, will be widely adopted for CRE transactions within two years, with applications ranging from secure transaction tracking to tokenized property investments. A big challenge remains — regulatory approval for blockchain-based property transfers.

• The Texas housing market is “ground zero” for cooling — not crashing. August data shows a 6.2% dip in home sales, a slight 0.2% decrease in median prices and a 13.8% increase in new listings driven by the state’s post-Hurricane Beryl recovery. Mortgage rates dropped slightly, and construction permits grew modestly. While affordability challenges and a potential slowdown loom, Texas’ strong economic growth and job additions are bolstering housing demand. So, while the market may continue to chill as inventory expands — especially in Austin, Dallas and Houston — the broader fundamentals suggest resilience over a crash.

• Global CRE transaction volumes are set to rebound. That’s according to Oxford Economics, which said a 57% equity market surge since 2022 has left many institutional investors underweight in real estate. Over $300B in private fund assets are in extension periods, so sales activity is likely to accelerate as funds move to liquidate. Appraisal values are aligning with market rates, encouraging transactions and allowing REITs to resume acquisitions. Portfolio realignments toward industrial and alternative sectors will add to demand, though rising distress in office spaces may slightly temper optimism. 

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.2 points to 93.7 in October. It is still below the long-term average of 98. Despite some optimism following the U.S. election, challenges remain, with 23% of small business owners citing inflation as their top concern. Sales saw a net decline, with a net negative 20% reporting higher sales — the lowest since July 2020. Compensation and hiring remained high, but job openings were difficult to fill, especially in construction and transportation.

This Morning’s News

BROKERAGE — A New Leader For JLL’s Americas Capital Markets Business (Bisnow): Kevin MacKenzie will start on Jan. 1 as president of the division. Jody Thornton shifts to executive chairman. MacKenzie has been at JLL for 20 years, starting as an analyst and most recently serving as head of production for the capital markets department. Learn more about MacKenzie's tenure at the brokerage.

INVESTMENT — Shaya Prager’s Empire Faces Widespread Deal Collapses (TRD): Opal Holdings, owned by Shaya Prager, bought billions of dollars of office properties and then doubled his collateral via a ground lease ownership structure. Now those deals are failing across the United States as his debt far outpaces the value of the properties. Explore the details of Prager’s failing property deals.

INVESTMENT — Real Estate Heirs Challenge Tradition By Selling (WSJ): A new generation of property scions is opting to sell off prime real estate assets. This shift represents a significant departure from the traditional “hold at all costs” philosophy. Read about why today’s real estate heirs are deciding to sell.

ENTERTAINMENT — Six Flags Considers Selling Some Amusement Parks (Bisnow): Six Flags is reevaluating its portfolio and could sell or shutter some of its 27 parks. The company is looking to reduce its net leverage. Read more.

HOUSING — East Coast, Midwest Apartments See Rent Increases (Redfin): Rents have remained largely flat over the past two years after a surge in demand during the pandemic. Depending on where you live, however, you could be seeing asking rents rising by double digits, while others are seeing similar-sized falls. Discover the regional variations.

RETAIL — Dine Brands To Open Combined IHOP-Applebee’s Locations (Fox Business): Dine Brands is set to expand its format that combines IHOP and Applebee’s under one roof. It tested the concept in 13 non-U.S. markets and found the dual-branded restaurants bring in 1.5 to 2 times the revenue of one of those brands alone. Learn about the upcoming IHOP-Applebee’s joint locations.

AI — JLL Unveils AI-Enhanced Azara (JLL): JLL is leveraging JLL Falcon and integrating AI technologies into its Azara platform. The company will celebrate its AI journey at the New York Stock Exchange closing bell ceremony tomorrow, Nov. 13. Learn how JLL’s Azara is changing data interactions with AI.

ECONOMY — Toll Of Extreme Weather Hits $2T (Oxera): Extreme weather events have inflicted a staggering $2T in economic damages globally over the past 10 years. There was an 83% increase in climate disasters from 1980-1999 to 2000-2019, and economic damages in the last two years are 19% higher than the rest of this decade. This financial burden underscores the growing impact of climate change on economies worldwide, prompting calls for increased resilience and mitigation strategies. Explore the comprehensive report on the economic costs of extreme weather events.

REITs — Broader Market Face October Downturn (Nareit): The FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index fell 3.6% in October, underperforming the broader stock market. Year-to-date, the All Equity REITs Index is up 10.1%. Learn more about the recent performance.

REITs — Sights Set On Expansion, Acquisitions (GlobeSt): REITs are likely to become more active as they can issue equity and buy assets on an accretive basis. Many REITs will also issue additional debt on a leverage-neutral basis to grow their portfolio. Discover how REITs are positioning themselves for acquisitions and growth.

MULTIFAMILY — Housing Vacancy Rate Drops To 5.3% (GlobeSt): All but two of the 69 markets CBRE tracks had positive net absorption in Q3, and 19 of 20 top markets for new supply had slightly more completions than absorption over the past four quarters. Explore the factors driving the drop in multifamily vacancy rates.

FINANCE — CMBS Distress Rate Climbs In October (CO): The distress rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities climbed to 9.6% in October. Learn more about the rising distress rate in the CMBS market.

OFFICE — Nightingale Office Tower Seized By Lenders (Bisnow): Nightingale has lost an office building near Grand Central Terminal in Manhattan. The company bought the leasehold on the 15-story building in 2014 for $28M from Extell Development. Embattled by scandal, Nightingale defaulted on its $30M loan last year. Fast-forward to today, and Namdar Realty Group and Klosed Properties have acquired the ground lease for $10.4M. Follow the journey that led to Nightingale losing the property.

PEOPLE —  Lincoln Property Vet To Lead $5B Summerlin Project (Howard Hughes): Howard Hughes Holdings appointed Jose Bustamante, a former senior vice president at Lincoln Property, as the new president of its Nevada region, overseeing the Summerlin master-planned community. Read more about Bustamante’s new role and the Summerlin development.

RETAIL — Robust Rebound Marks Strong October (Seeking Alpha): October witnessed a significant rebound in retail sales, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released by the National Retail Federation. Analysts say the surge may be driven by early holiday shopping and improved consumer confidence.The October Retail Sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau will be released this week. Explore the factors contributing to the resurgence.

RETAIL — NRF Predicts Steady Holiday Sales (Retail Dive): The National Retail Federation says current economic contradictions and mixed signals will not dampen the anticipated growth in holiday sales. Learn how the NRF views the holiday season amid economic uncertainty.

INDUSTRIAL — Alterra Secures Fully Leased IOS Sites (Alterra): Alterra has acquired a portfolio of IOS sites in seven U.S. markets. The sites are fully leased to a telecommunications and broadband networks tenant. Discover more about Alterra’s latest acquisition and its impact on its market presence.

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The First Draft is produced by Director of Newsletters Jay Rickey, Managing Editor Catie Dixon, Editor-in-Chief Mark F. Bonner and Deputy Newsletter Editor Kayla Carmicheal, with an assist from AI. We’d love your feedback! Email us at firstdraft@bisnow.com.