The Lone Star State is hurtling its way toward becoming the most populous state in the nation within 20 years.

That's according to Realtor.com’s new Texas real estate study, conducted to celebrate the former California company’s move to Austin.

Texas has added more residents than any other state since 2015, to the tune of about 4 million newcomers. But it is set to add 11 million more between now and 2045, hitting 42 million people and surpassing California for the crown of most populous U.S. state.

 
 
Unsplash/Enrique Macias
 
   
 

That kind of growth is sure to bring a lot of activity — and challenges — to the commercial real estate industry, most pressingly, where to house so many people. 

Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale notes that “Texas has responded by building more and smaller homes to meet demand, helping the market settle and housing inventory climb back to pre-pandemic levels ahead of the nationwide recovery.”

But the report cautions that much of the state’s housing stock is unaffordable. Even for Texans earning salaries in the state’s 80th percentile, making up to $150K per year, just 66% of for-sale inventory is affordable. 

Some Texans have suggested that the state’s future is more dense multifamily or communal housing than suburban sprawl and homes on the range. Either way, we’re looking at a more crowded couple of decades, and the clock is ticking on getting prepared for the population onslaught.

— The Bisnow Texas Tea Team

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What's The Big Deal?

 
   
 
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The largest mall in Texas is outperforming its prepandemic sales, which may have helped its owner secure new financing. Simon Property Group landed a $1.2B loan for The Galleria. The closure came ahead of the previous 10-year, $1.05B loan’s maturity that was slated for March.

About 1.6M SF of the mall serves as collateral for the loan.

The shopping portion of the development is 91.7% leased, excluding temporary tenants. That is up from 90% occupancy in 2019, a number that dropped to 87% during the first four years of the pandemic.

Read more here.

Best of Bisnow

BTR development is soaring in Texas, but it’s not for everyone. Demand for build-to-rent houses is expected to remain high since buying a home isn't getting any more affordable. But some in the industry believe a rise in construction costs, difficulty securing labor and quirks of the BTR industry will push some developers out


The line on Texas legalizing gambling this year isn’t yet on the board, but a new bill from a Fort Worth lawmaker will deal a new hand on the debate. Casino gambling wasn’t in the cards in 2023, but a House bill introduced by state Rep. Charlie Geren proposes Texas voters be presented with a constitutional amendment in November to “strictly regulate and authorize casino gaming and sports wagering.”


Some municipalities near Houston are just not worth working with, according to master-planned community developers. As they race to provide much-needed housing on the outskirts of the region, developers are grappling with obstacles, including politics and unprepared school districts.


Tenant rep Lucian Bukowski and his team joined Stream Realty Partners last week after being fired by CBRE. Bukowski then sued his former firm, seeking arbitration and claiming he has a contractual right to his client files.


The New York Stock Exchange announced plans to come to Y’all Street as NYSE Texas, reincorporating its Chicago branch in Dallas-Fort Worth. The move could create a crowded financial environment: The Texas Stock Exchange filed for SEC approval in late January, and Nasdaq is moving into the Metroplex with an Irving-based regional management division. 

Best Of The Rest

Will KFC Change Its Name To TFC? (KDFW): Yum Brands announced the fast-food chain formerly known as Kentucky Fried Chicken will relocate its corporate headquarters and 100 employees to the existing KFC and Pizza Hut offices in Plano later this year. The brand's parent company plans to keep its corporate offices and the KFC Foundation in Louisville, Kentucky.


A New Texas Gold Rush (Houston Chronicle): Real estate investors from near and far are scrambling to get lucrative tax breaks on Texas apartment complexes. Legislators plan to close a loophole they say comes from the misuse of housing finance corporations, which were created to incentivize affordable housing development.


Neiman Marcus To Vacate Dallas HQ And Flagship Store (TRD): Nearly two months after it was purchased by rival Saks, the Dallas-based luxury retailer sent a notice to terminate its office lease on three floors in Cityplace Tower. The company also plans to close its store at 1618 Main St. at the end of March after more than a century of operation.


City Of Starbase Gets Closer To Liftoff (Bloomberg): Billionaire Elon Musk’s vision of creating a town at the state’s southern tip took a step closer to reality. A judge has set a local vote for May 3 to incorporate Starbase, the remote property where Musk’s SpaceX builds and launches Starship rockets.


You Must Be This Short To Build (Houstonia): There is a reason that no building in Houston is taller than the JPMorgan Chase Tower at 75 stories, or 1,002 feet. The tower was originally planned to be 80 stories, but that would have encroached on flight paths leading to Hobby Airport. The FAA didn’t outright ban anyone from building taller but set more careful regulations based on buildings’ impacts on aviation

Quote Of The Week

“Get the very best land planner that you can get. That's where the magic happens. Land planning does not cost. Land planning pays.”

— Toll Brothers Vice President of Master-Planned Communities Jimmie Jenkins on the key to successful master-planned communities amid a patchwork of evolving zoning codes and regulations in municipalities surrounding Houston.

Our Cups Runneth Over

Quotes, factoids and minutiae that landed on the cutting-room floor over the past month but were too good not to share.

“When the Silicon Valley Bank [collapse] happened, the debt markets changed completely, and there are still ripple effects today. Regulators definitely cracked down. A lot of our usual banks, typical middle-market banks doing A&D loans, just completely left.”

— Hines Managing Director Carson Nunnelly at Bisnow’s Houston Master-Planned Communities Summit on difficulty securing financing to purchase land and develop master-planned communities

***

“Texas is bigger than most countries. We’ve got a greater variety of locations than anywhere.”

— Actor Woody Harrelson on True to Texas, an initiative to incentivize television and film production in Texas. 

***

“Healthy people don't want to work around a bunch of sick people. That being said, some of the low-impact uses — dermatology, oral surgery, dentistry, imaging, med spa — typically can go into a general office building.”

— JLL Managing Director Ethan Garner on why existing vacant office space isn’t being utilized for growing medical office needs.

Brewing In The Texas Job Market

Senior Analyst - Loan Resource Group — Play a key role in managing a diverse portfolio of commercial real estate loans, ensuring strong financial performance and strategic risk management for CIM Group, a community-focused real estate and infrastructure owner, operator, lender and developer. Oversee construction, bridge and other CRE loans, providing insights that drive investment decisions. This is a high-impact opportunity to work with a $6B-plus AUM lending platform, analyze market trends and shape the success of major real estate projects in top-tier markets.

***

How's the Tea? As we brew up next week's edition, send us your feedback, including what kind of content you'd find valuable in this newsletter. And don't forget, we love news tips. Reach our team at texastea@bisnow.com.

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