A key sales metric has turned positive after 26 months.

CoStar’s repeat sales index showed sales prices across property types falling 0.4% month-over-month in January, but the firm said that’s largely because of small, low-price deals.

Its value-weighted index, which reflects high-dollar trades, held firm month-over-month but clocked its first year-over-year increase — 0.6% — in more than two years and is 10% above February 2020. 

Other positive news from the report: More sales are closing, fewer are distressed deals, and time on the market is shrinking. There were 1,267 repeat sales in January totaling $9.1B, up from 1,155 a year prior totaling $6.7B and 1,201 two years prior.

“The worst of the market’s decline may be over,” said Chad Littell, CoStar’s national director of U.S. capital markets analytics.

— Jay Rickey, Kayla Carmicheal, Mark F. Bonner and Catie Dixon

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CRE News Quiz

Target is planning a $257M industrial project in Thornton, Colorado, to fuel its expansion plans. But the project is on shaky ground because it utilizes the EB-5 program, which President Donald Trump said last week he is killing. 

What is the name of the replacement program, and how does it differ from EB-5?

(Answer at the bottom.)

On Our Radar

• Howard Hughes has rejected Pershing Square — but it’s keeping the door open. Howard Hughes Holdings said the unsolicited Bill Ackman-led offer to buy 48% of the company at $90 per share “is not acceptable in its current form.” HHH is entering into a standstill agreement with Pershing through March 13 to explore alternatives.

• U.S. manufacturing expanded at its fastest clip in 2.5 years. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 last month, beating expectations and marking the strongest growth since June 2022. It’s the second consecutive month of expansion, but it may be a bump from people getting orders in before tariffs take hold rather than a sustainable trend. Price growth also jumped to its highest level since November 2022, which S&P said indicates suppliers are already raising prices to counteract the cost of impending tariffs. Manufacturing’s share of industrial demand is up 354% since 2018, and the sector is expected to account for a quarter of all industrial requirements by 2028.

• Crypto clarity led to a Sunday surge. The global crypto market spiked $329B in a few hours, reversing a weekslong sell-off, after Trump said bitcoin, ethereum, XRP, solana and cardona will be included in the new federal digital currency reserve. Some of those gains have been lost, but the industry is still up 7% in the last 24 hours as of this morning. Meanwhile, the SEC dropped a slate of crypto probes, and the inaugural White House crypto summit is Friday. CRE is dipping its toe into crypto, including the first NYC commercial building listed for sale that can be bought with digital currency.

• Construction is mostly holding steady. Residential construction hit $932.7B in January, a 0.4% drop month-over-month, while nonresidential was virtually unchanged at $753.2B, the Census Bureau said this morning. Overall, construction spending dropped 0.2% MOM but is up 3.3% YOY.

• It’s nice to be a Dolphin, but send thoughts and prayers to the Cardinals. The NFL Players Association has graded each team on all manner of metrics, from weight room to the food and cafeteria to treatment of families to head coach. The Miami Dolphins got an A or A-plus on every metric. We’re most intrigued by the F-minuses (an F isn’t harsh enough?!), including the Cardinals’ and the Browns’ apparently grody locker rooms.

On The Charts: GDP

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has plunged its estimate for Q1 GDP from 3.9% growth to a 1.5% contraction. That includes a 2% contraction in GDP activity from nonresidential structures.

Today’s Deep Dive: Private Prison Operators Predict Unprecedented Growth From Trump’s Immigration Crackdown

The two major publicly traded prison firms, CoreCivic and The Geo Group, saw their stocks rise by more than 80% in the days after President Donald Trump’s resounding win. The firms, which are key providers of immigrant detention facilities for the U.S. government, are rushing to prepare facilities and staff to meet what they — and investors — expect will be a deluge of new contracts. 

“We believe the scale of the opportunity before our company is unlike any we've previously experienced,” Geo Group CEO David Donahue said on the firm’s Feb. 27 earnings call.

Read the full story here.

This Morning’s News

FINANCE — Morgan Stanley To Raise New Global Megafund (Bisnow): Morgan Stanley has begun raising capital for its latest global real estate opportunity fund. The company registered North Haven Real Estate Fund XI Global in Luxembourg, with an SEC filing likely to follow shortly. Read more here.

DATA CENTERS — Meta In Talks For $35B Data Center Raise (Bisnow): Meta and Apollo are eyeing taking the lead on the U.S. data center development fund. KKR is also on board. Meta broke ground on six data centers last year and has plans to expand even more this year. Read more here.

RETAIL — Tanger Outlets Eyes Full-Price Expansion (Modern Retail): Tanger Outlets’ CEO said the company is looking to acquire more full-price shopping malls. Tanger has long been known for its outlet malls. Read more here.

RETAIL — Twin Peaks Plans Expansion, Is Closing Smokey Bones Locations (Restaurant Business Online): Twin Peaks plans to close nine Smokey Bones locations and shift its focus toward an expansion of the Twin Peaks concept from 115 to 650 U.S. locations. Read more here.

LEGAL — Chicago Women In Trades Sues To Challenge Trump's Anti-DEI Executive Orders (Bisnow): The organization said the anti-DEI orders threaten its ability to diversify the construction industry and other high-wage skilled trades. Read more here.

RETAIL — More Foreign Brands Enter U.S. Markets (CNBC): Almost 30% of the roughly 19,000 stores that opened in the U.S. from 2018 through 2023 were from foreign-owned retailers. Read more here.

BROKERAGE — Eastdil Hires Consultants To Aid In Search For Business Partners (Bisnow): Eastdil’s executive committee told senior staff it went to BDT & MSD Partners for advice on positioning the firm to accelerate its growth strategy. Read more here.

HOTELS — PAI Partners To Take Major Stake In Motel One (Bloomberg): PAI Partners is nearing a deal to acquire a majority stake in hotel chain Motel One, valuing the company at $3.6B. Motel One has 99 hotels in 13 countries with about 28,000 rooms. Read more here.

RETAIL — Department Stores Maintain Their Value (Placer.ai): Luxury department stores serving higher-income shoppers appear to be relatively insulated from the rise in budget-conscious shopping. Read more here.

HOUSING — PulteGroup’s Del Webb Targets Gen X (PulteGroup): PulteGroup has launched a new housing concept, Del Webb Explore, designed to cater to the lifestyle preferences of Gen X. The first communities are planned for Southern California and the Tampa Bay Area, with nationwide expansion already in motion. Read more here.

INVESTMENT — Trump’s ‘Gold Card’ Triggers CRE Alarm (NYT): EB-5 program participants expect to get their $1M investment back, but Trump’s plan requires a $5M donation that isn’t returned. Read more here.

HOUSING — Rent-To-Own Homes Attract Affluent Buyers (WSJ): Rent-to-own transactions offer benefits to affluent buyers, including the ability to live in a new home and find construction defects that might otherwise not be found from a home inspection. Read more here.

INVESTMENT — Texas As Tech Hub (WSJ): The pace of tech job growth in Texas has slowed but the state still outpaces the national trend. One challenge is the lack of employees needed to run AI data centers. Read more here.

HOUSING — Regional Disparities In Housing Market (WSJ): Affordability should improve in oversupplied states like Texas, but this isn't the case in many parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Read more here.

TARIFFS — Lumber Tariffs To Come? (Bloomberg): Trump has ordered the Commerce Department to launch an investigation into the national security threat from lumber imports, laying the legal groundwork for tariffs. Read more here.

LA FIRES — Property Damage Tops $28B (Bisnow): A new report pins the damage to be no less than $28B and up to $53.8B. Business disruption could result in economic losses of $9B in LA County between now and 2029. If the geographic scope is widened to look at economic losses in the entire SoCal region, the real estate sector is estimated to experience a hit of $559.3M to $1.1B. Read more here.

PEOPLE — Kroger CEO Steps Down Following Conduct Probe (Reuters): Kroger’s longtime CEO, Rodney McMullen, has stepped down after an internal investigation into his personal conduct. His resignation is not related to the company's performance, operations or reporting and his conduct did not involve a Kroger associate, the grocer said in a statement. Read more here.

RETAIL — Prada Approaches $1.6B Versace Acquisition (Bloomberg): Prada's acquisition of the late Gianni Versace's fashion house would allow it to compete with global luxury groups like LVMH and Kering SA. Read more here.

***

So You’ve Come For An Answer

The new gold card visa program is still scarce on details but appears to be very similar to the EB-5 program. The biggest difference is it requires a $5M minimum investment to grant foreign investors a path to U.S. residency, up from the EB-5 program’s minimum $1M investment. 

Do you think you have a better CRE news question? Email us. Take your best shot and we may feature you and your question in this space.

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The First Draft is produced by Director of Newsletters Jay Rickey, Managing Editor Catie Dixon, Editor-in-Chief Mark F. Bonner and Deputy Newsletter Editor Kayla Carmicheal, with an assist from AI. We’d love your feedback! Email us at firstdraft@bisnow.com.