News
The Future of SoCal Retail
August 29, 2012
| An audience of 160 gathered last week for Bisnow's SoCal Retail Real Estate Summit on the grounds of the Newport Beach Marriott Hotel & Spa, a fine al fresco setting for CRE chat. (Somehow retail just sounds cleaner in the fresh air.) Five expert panelists offered their take on retail real estate in SoCal and further away, plus predictions on finance, the economy, and more. |
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| Colliers International SVP Christopher Maling (right) provided expert moderation, posing questions that covered the future of bricks-and-mortar vs. online retailing to the future prospects of CMBS as a finance vehicle for retail real estate. He then challenged the panel: "What's next, guys?" |
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| Colliers International SVP Tom Lagos characterized the current retail investment market as in flux—“a lot of uncertainty out there.” (We're thinking of starting a CRE psychic business in this climate.) Brokers in the current environment can find buyers and sellers, Tom says, but that’s when the real work begins. Cap rates, he adds, will follow loan rates. Click the video above to hear more. |
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| NewMark Merrill Cos CEO Sandy Sigal notes that every aspect of retailing will be affected by the Internet. Certain tenants, especially discounters, aren’t going to be replaced by the “clicks" of online shopping. The Internet will be additive to their business, but not so much in the high-end categories, which are more vulnerable to online competition. Click the video above to hear more. |
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| Thompson National Properties CEO Tony Thompson says he’s looking for opportunistic acquisitions that nevertheless include the dominant grocer in the neighborhood. (Who doesn't appreciate fresh fruit with their retail space?) Three things he looks for: a price below replacement cost, within the path of growth, and with a value-add component. Click the video above to hear more. |
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| The flow of defaults in the retail space is going from “monetary defaults” to “maturity defaults,” according to Trident Pacific Real Estate Group principal receiver Gregg Williams. That is, many loans are starting to come due, and many borrowers won’t be able to refi in the future. It’s a trend whose velocity will increase in 2014 and 2015, and really be a big story in 2016, Gregg predicts. Click the videoabove to hear more. |
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| Cohen Financial managing director Mark Strauss says that in the wake of the recession, financing flowed to apartments and then to industrial on both the debt and equity sides. Now portfolios are well stocked with those property types. Will financing flow to retail? The whole marketplace is not going to move toward financing retail, Mark says—just a large part of it. Click the video above to hear more. |
