Andrew Nelson: The Man Tracking S.F.'s Economy

Meet Andrew, Colliers' new chief economist for the US, who's got a lot to say about the Bay Area's outlook. Here's what he told Bisnow during a private party at Perbacco last week.

1. Our State of the Union: Pretty Strong

It's a good time to be an American consumer and investor in the US, says Andrew, who's based in Colliers' S.F. office after coming from RREEF. The recovery was anemic to start but it's moving in the right direction on all fronts and starting to pick up steam, he adds. Housing starts and sales prices are going up, and consumers are spending more than ever as anation. Andrew says that's in deep contrast to what is going on in the rest of the developed world, where every nation is standing still or going backwards. 

2. California's Economy Ranks No. 7 in the World

That's up from No. 10 just two years ago, having passed a number of countries, including Brazil. GDP growth blows past the rest of the US and job growth is 50% faster. We still lag when it comes to poverty, with unemployment the second-highest in the nation, behind Mississippi. What concerns him is the housing crisis. California has the most unaffordable housing in the nation, relative to incomes, Andrew says. It's a recipe for slower growth unless corrected. Above regional executive managing director Alan Collenette, who told Bisnow last month that S.F. is experiencing a golden age. Alan told us his office is filming a segment of CNN's One Square Meter today on the tech invasion of the city based on Colliers' fourth-quarter numbers.

3. What Keeps Him Up At Night

It's not coffee, which is ironic because Colliers just scored the Nespresso flagship building at 90 Grant as a new property management assignment. Andrew tells us the real concern is all the tech firms leasing "every last square foot in S.F." While these expansions are good for the market, Andrew is worried about the concentration in one sector and a few key tenants like Salesforce should there be a market correction. He thinks this is going to be the best year yet. We caught up with two director of ops in Colliers S.F. office, who are real-life neighbors: Cecile Taylor (retail services) and Emily Herson (S.F. REMS).