2015: Fuller’s Prediction
Should we keep you in suspense, like they say “stay tuned for the weather report at 11”? Nah, we’re upfront with our readers—especially when it comes to good news. The word from Steve:
The worst is now behind us, he says. (For those of you living under rocks, the Steve Fuller we’re referring to is George Mason’s forever regional economic guru.) In 2013, the DC region’s economy declined by nearly 1%, putting it at the bottom of the heap in America: Virginia ranked 48th, Maryland 49th and DC 51st. Yikes! Average household income declined per family $2,300. “Washington was a luxury liner with a leak,” Steve says, “and no one was pumping.” Luckily, it still had high incomes relative to the rest of the country. In 2014, it’s not growing, but at least it’s no longer shrinking.
Next year, he predicts, instead of the 15,000 net new jobs this year, he expects at least 40,000, and they will be higher income jobs, including more in science and research. (“More better jobs,” he adds, laughing at the awkward syntax, but saying it makes the point.) He expects the DC region will grow 1 to 1.5%, around half the 2.7% expected nationally. Why the change? Small and midsized firms which did federal contracting have repositioned themselves as B2B businesses. And elected officials got the message, and have tried to stimulate non-federal business. Virginia will pop the most, he predicts, because it was damaged the most and it has more entrepreneurs to help lead it back.
Maybe it was the turkey with wife Susan Bateson last week at their home in Georgetown, Maine (“the affordable Georgetown,” he says) that put him in a good mood, though it was in the middle of a 9-inch snowstorm that cut their power for 25 hours. (Always prepared, Steve has a generator.) In short, he says, trends look good through 2017. Housing has pent-up demand and new home construction will ramp up. Kids will get married and start families and begin buying houses, and kids moving out of parents’ basements will backfill the rental market. Have some more turkey.
