The Jobs Domino Effect
Housing in the Greater Phoenix area is still on the rise, but don’t expect double-digit growth to continue. Despite some concerns of overbuilding, “it’s hit a plateau,” says Integra Realty Resources senior managing director Tres Winius, snapped with son Pierce in Sedona. “Housing starts were lower than expected in 2013, which is bringing balance to supply and demand.” Office continues to lag, and Tres says we need to see job creation from corporate growth; think Apple and State Farm. Then, as housing fills, industrial and retail will follow, he says. (And after retail, retail returns, because your mom picked up the wrong size.)
We’re already beginning to see some job growth along the Loop 303 corridor, particularly in places like the Southeast Valley and the west side, Tres says. According to IRR’s annual survey, retail is halfway recovered, while CBD office and industrial is at the tail end of recovery and heading into the expansion cycle. Good news: IRR has been working on the appraisals of large portfolios and has seen valuations increasing across the board, Tres says, from master-planned communities to trophy retail. In a few weeks, he’ll be escaping the sunshine for some fog during IRR’s annual stockholder meeting in San Francisco, where he’s got sightseeing and a winery tour planned.
