Developers are gaining more confidence in the Miami retail market as a tight, steady vacancy rate keeps rents on the rise amid slower fundamentals.

Miami-Dade County's retail construction pipeline reached 1.3M SF in the third quarter, double the amount under construction in the same period last year and the highest level since early 2023, according to a third-quarter Colliers report and data provided to Bisnow.

"The differentiating factor here is that there's confidence that if you build it, they will come," Colliers retail services Executive Vice President Sabrina Stimming said. "Tenants are still out there driving the demand, which is what I think is the difference. There was just too much uncertainty a couple of years ago."

Direct vacancy inched upward from 2.9% to 3% in the third quarter, hovering within the same 3% range it has been in for the last year, and remains below pre-pandemic levels, according to the report.

The uptick comes amid 59K SF of deliveries and 94K SF that was vacated, primarily focused in the Northeast and South Dade, making absorption negative.

Leasing activity also slowed in the third quarter, totaling 257K SF across 118 deals, down from the 413K SF of deals across 150 transactions in the previous quarter, according to the report.

The largest lease of the third quarter was a 51K SF deal with a digital zoo concept called Holozoo Florida.

Even with a slower third quarter, asking rents continue their upward climb and "show no signs of cooling," according to the report.

Triple-net asking rents hit a record $44.34 per SF in the third quarter, up from $42.83 in the third quarter of 2025 and a more than 18% increase since 2021, according to the report.

"It's a little bit mind-boggling as you see the way rents continue to rise, but so far they've been sustainable," Stimming said.

Retail is among the best-performing asset classes in the nation, with rising rents, historically low vacancy and a supply shortage. But as developers across the country struggle to build more inventory due to high construction costs, large retail projects in Miami are setting the market apart.

Miami-Dade County's construction pipeline is nearly twice the size of Broward County's, which is at 697K SF and significantly larger than the 190K SF pipeline in Palm Beach County, according to Colliers reports.

"The recent uptick reflects continued developer confidence in well-located retail projects tied to population growth and mixed-use development activity throughout the county," Colliers Research Manager Haley Boatright wrote to Bisnow in an email.

Miami's preleasing activity is driving confidence.

Among the largest projects in Miami's pipeline, which spans 17 developments, is the 500K SF of retail in the Miami Freedom Park development.

The $1B project landed three retailers in December, totaling 120K SF in leasing activity. Tenants include a Tiger Woods-backed golf entertainment venue called PopStroke and Puerto Rico-based adventure park Toroverde.

The under-construction Palm Springs Square in Miami Gardens is bringing 230K SF of grocery-anchored retail and has signed Publix.

Most recently, David Martin's Terra landed a 40K SF lease with Walmart for a new Neighborhood Market at the 78K SF under-construction Doral Atrium, according to a release. The development, expected to open next year, is 95% leased to tenants including PNC Bank, Bonchon Chicken, Sushi Mas, Tremble Pilates and The Good Feet Store.

"There's a lot of preleasing going on, so that's making it easier for the developers to pull the trigger at this point, with being able to justify their underwriting," Stimming said.

But the uptick in development isn't expected to relieve enough pressure to soften rents, especially in neighborhoods like Brickell, where the vacancy rate is 2.7%, or suburban markets like Aventura, Coconut Grove and Coral Gables, where vacancy rates are below 2%.

The increased competition means tenants looking to get in on Miami's market may need to be malleable on expectations.

"I think retailers as a whole may have pinpointed where they want to enter a market, but I think that, for the most part, unless you're that specialty-type restaurateur, you're going to need to be flexible and you're going to need to be a little bit willing to consider alternatives to break in," Stimming said.

"Not everybody's going to get into Coconut Grove this year, and not everyone's going to get into Aventura in 2028 or whatever their growth plan is," she added. "I think that they need to be a little bit flexible and quick on their feet."